Signals,Decisions,and Strategy: The Submarine Hunt in the Sognefjord 1972

Abstract

The present study describes the events in the Norwegian west-coast Sognefjord in November 1972. The possible presence of an unidentified submarine presented an inexperienced government with a complicated set of strategic assessments. The choices made appear to have been based on an inadequate understanding of the chances of success as the latter were seriously circumscribed by the physical characteristics of the waters involved. Even if Norway had possessed the means of detecting and identifying the mystical submarine, serious doubts are raised about the wisdom of pursuing the maximalist objectives which the government announced. The decision-making in the crisis reflects little deliberate calculation of costs and risks, and did not focus on how losses could be cut when it became clear that the submarine would escape. The information policy added to the perception of loss and tended to feed unrealistic expectations about what could be achieved.