This study is comprised of two parts. In the first, the relationship between the belief system of official decision-makers and the behaviour of states in the realm of foreign policy, as well as the problems and limitations inherent in this type of explanatory model, are discussed. In the second part, an alternative model is presented in which the official foreign policy doctrine is treated as a central independent variable. Parti cular attention is given to the possible usefulness of this model for predictive purposes.
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