Bipolarization and Tension in International Systems

Abstract

This article is an interim report of a research project in which an attempt is made to measure the variations in East-West 'tension' in Europe after 1945 and to explain the variations by reference to, inter alia, variations in 'global bipolarization'. The author presents tentative theoretical definitions of these key concepts; he also discusses and illustrates how they can be made operational. Against the background of earlier theoretical literature about bipolarity vs. multipolarity and polarization vs. depolar ization in the international system, he then presents a number of hypotheses about the way in which variations in the degree of bipolarization may affect tension in inter national systems. He finds that there are good theoretical arguments in favour of the opinion that bipolarization tends to increase tension, but also good arguments in favour of the contrary idea, and he concludes by pointing out that the issue can only be settled by way of systematic empirical investigation.