The CFSP Factor

Abstract

The European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy is widely seen as a casualty of the fractious dispute over Iraq. Deep cleavages among Union governments together with the Bush administration's newfound strategy to divide and neutralize the EU as a potential rival power bloc raise the bar for achieving a significant measure of concert. Yet, announcement of CFSP's demise is premature. There are significant issues where a consensus exists on Europe's stake and the course to follow, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict most prominent among them. Judging whether that will translate into sustained collective action requires a searching review of the reasons for the current impasse and the longer-term implications of the recent crisis. This analysis concentrates on the United States and France: the former as the dominant player in the drama and the latter as its principal antagonist for whom the EU presents opportunity as a potential force magnifier while carrying the constraints of institutionalized multilateralism.