Economic Reform and Public Opinion in Peru,1990-1995

Abstract

Even if they are confident that prosperity lies just over the horizon, politicians who embark on promarket reforms know they are in for some stormy weather. How will they fare in voters' eyes once the pain is felt? Will voters inevitably turn against politicians who impose painful measures without an electoral mandate to do so? The story of economic reform and public opinion in Peru under Alberto Fujimori (1990-1995) poses just these questions. The author uses monthly public opinion polls and monthly economic data to analyze the impact of economic changes during Fujimori's reform program on opinions of the reforms and the president. The author finds that Limeños withdrew support from the program and the president when employment fell and inflation rose, responses consistent with the findings of the economic voting literature. But when real wages fell, they became optimistic about the future and more likely to support reforms and the government.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Apoyo, S. A. (1990). Informe de opinión, July 1990-April 1993. Lima: Author

Barretto, J. W. (1991). Marketing político: Elecciones 1990. Lima, Peru: Universidad del Pacífico.

Cambio 90. (1990). Lineamientos del plan de gobierno. Lima, Peru: Author.

Campbell, A. E. , Converse, P. E. , Miller, W. E. , & Stokes, D. E. (1963). Elections and the political order. New York: John Wiley.

Carrión, J. F. (1994, March 10-12). The support gap for democracy in Peru: Mass public attitudes towards Fujimori's self-coup. Paper presented at the XVIII International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, Atlanta, GA.

Conaghan, C. , Malloy, J. M. , & Abugattas, L. A. (1990).Business and the `boys': The politics of neoliberalism in the central Andes. Latin American Research Review, 25(2), 3-30.

Dancourt, O. (1986). Sobre las politicas macroeconómicas en el Peru, 1970-1984. Lima, Peru: Instituto de Estudios Peruanos.

Dancourt, O. et al. (1990). Una propuesta de reforma monetaria para acabar con la hiperinflación. Lima: CISEPAN, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

Dancourt, O. et al. (1992). Desinflación ortodoxa y retraso carnbiario en el Perú: Un modelo keynesiano. Lima, Peru: CISEPA and Pontificia Universidad Católica.

10.

Daeschner, J. (1993). La guerra del fin de la democracia. Lima: Peru Reporting.

11.

DeGregori, C. I. , & Grompone, R. (1991). Demonios y redentores en el nuevo Perú. Lima: Instituto de Estudios Peruanos.

12.

Fernandez de Baca, G. , & Webb, R. (1990). Perú en números. Lima, Peru: Cuánto, S.A.

13.

Fernandez de Baca, G. , & Webb, R. (1991). Perú en números. Lima, Peru: Cuánto, S.A.

14.

Fernandez de Baca, G. , & Webb, R. (1992). Perú en números. Lima, Peru: Cuánto, S.A.

15.

Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informática . (1991). Compendio estadístico (Various issues). Lima: INEI.

16.

Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informática . (1992). Compendio estadístico (Various issues). Lima: INEI.

17.

Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informática . (1993). Compendio estadístico (Various issues). Lima: INEI.

18.

Inter-Campus . (1990). El debate. Lima, Peru: Universidad del Pacifíco.

19.

Lago, R. (1992). The illusion of pursuing redistribution through macropolicy: Peru's heterodox experience. In R. Dornbusch & S. Edwards (Eds.), The macroeconomics of populism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

20.

Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1988). Economics and elections. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

21.

Ostrom, C. W., Jr. , & Smith, R. M. (1992).Error correction, attitude persistence, and executive rewards and punishments: A behavioral theory of presidential approval. Political Analysis, 4, 127-183.

22.

Paldam, M. (1988). How robust is the vote function? A study of seventeen nations over four decades. In H. Northop , M. S. Lewis-Beck , & J. D. Lafay (Eds.), Economics and politics: The calculus of support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

23.

Pastor, M. , & Wise, C. (1992).Peruvian economic policy in the 1980s: From orthodoxy to heterodoxy and back. Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 83-117.

24.

Ruiz Caro, A. (1991, September-October). Reinserción: Cuentas de nunca acabar. QueHacer, 73, 12-17.

25.

Salmon, J. (1993). Entre la vanidad y el poder: Memoria y testimonio. Lima, Peru: Editorial Apoyo.

26.

Stokes, S. (1995). Democratic accountability and policy change: Economic policy in Fujimori's Peru (Chicago Center on Democracy Working Paper #10). Chicago: Chicago Center on Democracy.

27.

Vargas Llosa, M. (1993). El pez y el agua. Barcelona, Spain: Seix Barral.

28.

Velarde, J. , & Rodriguez, M. (1992). El programa económico de agosto de 1990: Evaluación del primer ano. Lima, Peru: Universidad del Pacifico and Consorcio de Investigación Económica.

29.

Wise, C. (1994, March 10-12). The political economy of the Fujimori regime in Peru. Paper prepared for the XVII International Congress, Latin American Studies Association, Atlanta, GA.