The Compliant Foreign Policy of the Dependent State Revisited

Abstract

Studies of the linkage between economic dependence and foreign policy compliance have been confounded by the difficulties of measuring dependence. Single indicators of dependence may be inadequate reflections of what appears to be a multidimensional phenomenon, but the relative potency of these factors has not yet been weighed. The ability to determine the relative salience of dependence factors has been limited by the “dominant state-centric” model employed in prior research, which examines a single dominant state and the foreign policies of its many dependencies. This model fails to capture what, in reality, is the norm: that most peripheral states find themselves involved in dependent relations with two or more regional and global powers. A “dependent state-centric” model—one that examines a single dependent state's foreign policies vis-à-vis its several dominant states—thus is theoretically warranted, and its application provides an opportunity to compare the relative salience of different types of dependence across multiple dominant partners. An initial application of this model to the foreign policy of Somalia toward its dominant states from 1976 to 1980 suggests that export trade dependence is highly associated with a subordinate state's subsequent foreign policy behavior, whereas levels of foreign aid and military assistance dependence are not. In suggesting that weak states may experience different types of dependencies on different dominant countries and that these diverse relationships are associated with different kinds of behavioral consequences, this case study demonstrates the utility of this alternative model for addressing the linkage between economic dependence and political compliance, and reduces confidence in existing “bargaining”-based investigations of the generalized compliance hypothesis.