The question posed in this article is whether the record of economic growth of Third World countries so far supports the claim that at a certain stage late industrialization is best served by bureaucratic-authoritarian regimes. A multiple interrupted time-series design is used to assess and compare the impact of bureaucratic-authoritarian and democratic regimes on economic growth in South America.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
BACHA, E. (1977) “Issues and evidence on recent Brazilian economic growth.”World Development5: 47-68.
2.
BAER, W. (1973) “The Brazilian boom 1968-72: an explanation and interpretation.”World Development1: 1-15.
3.
BAER, W. (1965) Industrialization and Economic Development in Brazil. Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin.
4.
BOX, G.E.P. and G.M. JENKINS (1976) Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden-Day.
5.
CAMPBELL, D. T. and T. D. COOK (1978) The Design and Analysis of Quasi-Experiments for Field Settings. Chicago: Rand McNally.
6.
CARDOSO, F. H. and E. FALETTO (1978) Dependency and Development in Latin America. Berkeley: Univ. of California Press.
7.
DIAZ-ALEJANDRO, C. F. (1976) Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Colombia. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
8.
DIAZ-ALEJANDRO, C. F. (1970) Essays on the Economic History of the Argentine Republic. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
9.
DIAZ-ALEJANDRO, C. F. (1965) “On the import intensiveness of import substitution.”Kyklos18: 495-509.
10.
DICK, W. (1974) “Authoritarian versus nonauthoritarian approaches to economic development.”J. of Pol. Economy82: 817-827.
11.
FELIX, D. (1968) “The dilemma of import substitution in Argentina,” in G. Papanek (ed.) Development Policy: Theory and Practice. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press.
12.
FISHLOW, A. (1973) “Some reflections on post-1964 Brazilian economic policy,” in A. Stepan (ed.) Authoritarian Brazil. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
13.
FURTADO, C. (1967) Subdesenvolvimento e Estagnàçao na América Latina. Rio de Janeiro: Editoria Civilizacao Brasileira.
14.
GERSHENKRON, A. (1962) Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press.
15.
HIBBS, D. A. (1974) “Problems of statistical estimation and causal inference in timeseries regression models,” in H. L. Costner (ed.) Sociological Methodology, 1973-1974. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
16.
HIRSCHMAN, A. O. (1981) Essays in Trespassing: Economics to Politics and Beyond. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press.
17.
HIRSCHMAN, A. O. (1979) “The turn to authoritarianism in Latin America and the search for its economic determinants,” in D. Collier (ed.) The New Authoritarianism in Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
18.
HIRSCHMAN, A. O. (1971) A Bias for Hope. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
19.
HOROWITZ, I. L. and E. K. TRIMBERGER (1976) “State power and military nationalism in Latin America.”Comparative Politics8: 223-244.
20.
KAUFMAN, R. R. (1979) “Industrial change and authoritarian rule in Latin America: a concrete review of the bureaucratic-authoritarian model,” in D. Collier (ed.) The New Authoritarianism in Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
21.
KURTH, J.R. (1979) “Industrial change and political change: a European perspective,” in D. Collier (ed.) The New Authoritarianism in Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
22.
LEFF, N. H. (1964) Economic Policy-Making and Development in Brazil, 1947-1964. New York: John Wiley.
23.
MALLOY, J. M. [ed.] (1977) Authoritarianism and Corporatism in Latin America. Pittsburgh: Univ. of Pittsburgh Press.
24.
MEIER, K. J. (1980) “Executive reorganization of government: impact on employment and expenditures.”Amer. J. of Pol. Sci.24: 396-412.
25.
MOORE, B., Jr. (1966) Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Boston: Beacon Press.
26.
NAIPAUL, V. S. (1981) The Return of Eva Perón. New York: Vintage.
27.
NORDLINGER, E. A. (1970) “Soldiers in mufti: the impact of military rule upon economic and social change in the non-Western states.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.64: 1131-1148.
28.
O'DONNELL, G. A. (1973) Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics. Berkeley: University of California, Institute of International Studies.
29.
ORGANSKI, A.F.K. (1965) The Stages of Political Development. New York: Knopf.
30.
SCHMITTER, P. C. (1972) “Paths to political development in Latin America,” in D. A. Chalmers (ed.) Changing Latin America: New Interpretations of Its Policies and Society. New York: Colombia University, Academy of Political Science.
31.
SCHMITTER, P. C. (1971) Interest Conflict and Political Change in Brazil. Stanford, CA: Stanford Univ. Press.
32.
SERRA, J. (1979) “The mistaken theses regarding the connection between industrialization and authoritarian regimes,” in D. Collier (ed.) The New Authoritarianism in Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
33.
SHEAHAN, J. (1980) “Market-oriented economic policies and political repression in Latin America.”Econ. Development and Cultural Change28: 267-291.
34.
SKIDMORE, T. E. (1977) “The politics of economic stabilization in postwar Latin America,” in J. M. Malloy (ed.) Authoritarianism and Corporatism in Latin America. Pittsburgh: Univ. of Pittsburgh Press.
35.
STEPAN, A. (1978) The State and Society: Peru in Comparative Perspective. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press.
36.
TAVARES, M. C. (1964) “Growth and decline of import substitution in Brazil.”Econ. Bull. for Latin America9: 1-65.
37.
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America [UN-ECLA] (1978) Series Históricas del Crecimiento de America Latina. Santiago: Cepal.
38.
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (1964) The Economic Development of Latin America in the Post-War Period. New York: United Nations.