The article suggests that the massive transformation of the political system often referred to as “political development” is responsible for the movement from high to low birth-and death rates in national populations. The effect of the changing political system is independent of (and in addition to) the effects of socioeconomic changes previously presented in the theory of demographic demographic transition. The article reports first the nature of the systematic connection between change in the political system on the one hand and change in vital rates on the other. Second, it presents a new empirical measure of the capacity and effectiveness of whole political systems.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
ADELMAN, I. and C. MORRIS (1973) Economic Growth and Social Equality in Developing Countries. Stanford, CA: Stanford Univ. Press.
2.
BAHL, R. (1971) “A regression approach to the effort and the tax ratio analysis.”International Monetary Fund Staff Papers18 (November): 570-612.
3.
BECKERMAN, W. (1966) International Comparisons of Real Income. Paris: OECD.
4.
BERELESON, B. (1969) “Beyond family planning.”Science163: 533-543.
5.
BINDER, L. and J. La PALOMBARA [eds.] (1974) Crisis and Sequences in Political Development. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Unive. Press.
6.
CHELLIAH, R. (1971) “Trends in taxation in developmenting countries.”International Monetary Fund Staff Papers (July): 254-331.
7.
CHELLIAH, R.H. BAAS , and M. KELLY (1974) “Tax ratios and tax effort in developing countries, 1969-71.”International Monetary Fund Staff Papers DM/74/47 (May 2).
8.
CHOUCRI, N. (1974) Population Dynamics and International Violence. Lexington, MA: D. C. Heath.
9.
COALE, A. (1973) “The demographic transition,” in International Population Conference, Vol. 1. Liege: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
10.
DAVIS, K. (1967) “Population policy: will current programs succeed?”Science158: 730-739.
11.
DEUTSCH, K. (1966) “Social mobilization and political development,” in Jason Finkle and Richard Gable (eds.) Political Development and Social Change. New York: John Wiley.
12.
DEMENY, P. (1979) “On the end of the population explosion.”Population and Development Rev.5 (March).
13.
FREEDMAN, R. (1979) “Theories of fertility decline: a reappraisal.”Social Forces58 (September): 1-17.
14.
FRIEDLANDER, S. and M. SILVER (1967) “A quantitative study of the determinants of fertility behavior.”Demography4: 30-70.
15.
GILBERT, M. and KRAVIS, I. (1954) An International Comparison of National Product and the Purchasing Power of Currencies. Paris: OECD.
16.
GILBERT, M.et al. (1958) Comparative National Products and Price Levels. Paris: OECD.
17.
GURR, T. (1974) “Persistence and change in political systems, 1800-1971.”Amer. Pol. Sci. Rev.68, 4: 1482-1504.
18.
HEER, D. (1966) “Economic development and fertility.”Demography3: 424-444.
19.
HUNTINGTON, S. (1967) Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
20.
International Monetary Fund (1980) Government Finance Statistics Yearbook, Vol. 2. Washington, DC.
21.
JANOWITZ, B. (1971) “An empirical study of the effects of socioeconomic development on fertility rates.”Demography 8.
22.
KEYFITZ, N. (1977) Applied Mathematics Demography. New York: John Wiley.
23.
KEYFITZ, N. (1976) Applied Mathematical Demography. New York: John Wiley.
24.
KRAVIS, I. B. , A. HESTON, and R. SUMMERS (1979) International Comparisons of Real Product and Purchasing Power. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins. Univ. Press.
25.
KRAVIS, I. B. , Z. KENESSEY, A. HESTON, and R. SUMMERS (1975) A System of International Comparisons of Gross Product and Purchasing Power. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press.
26.
KUGLER, J. (1983) “Utilization of residuals: an option to indirectly measure concepts.”Political Methodology.
27.
KUGLER, J. and W. DOMKE (1981) “Comparing the strength of nations.” Presented at the American Political Science Association Meeting, September.
28.
LOTZ, J. and E. MORSS (1967) “Measuring `tax effort' in developing countries.”International Monetary Fund Staff Papers16: 478-499.
29.
MOULDIN, W. P. (1978) “Patterns of fertility decline in developing countries, 1950-1975.”Studies in Family Planning (April).
30.
MOULDIN, W. P.et al. (1978) “Conditions of fertility decline in developing countries, 1975-75.”Studies in Family Planning9 (May).
31.
MOULDIN, W. P. (1945) “Population: the long view,” in Theodore Schultz (ed.) Food for the World. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.
32.
NOTESTEIN, F. (1953) “Economic problems of population change.” Presented at the 8th International Conference of Agricultural Economists.
33.
ORGANSKI, A.F.K. and J. KUGLER (1980) The War Ledger. Chicago: Univ. of Chicago Press.
34.
ORGANSKI, A.F.K. and J. KUGLER (1978) “Davids and Goliaths: reducing the outcome of international wars.”Comparative Pol. Studies11, 2: 141-180.
35.
ORGANSKI, A.F.K. and J. KUGLER (forthcoming) Births, Deaths, and Taxes.
36.
ORGANSKI, K. and A.F.K. ORGANSKI (1961) Population and World Power. New York: Knopf.
37.
RUSSETT, B. M. , H. ALKER, Jr., K. DEUTSCH, and H. LASWELL (1964) World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
38.
TAIT, A. A. , W. GRATZ, and B. EICHENGREEN (1979) “International comparisons of taxation for selected developing countries, 1972-76.”International Monetary Fund Staff Papers26 (March): 123-156.
39.
TAYLOR, C. [ed.] (1978) World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators, Vol. 2. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press.
40.
THOMPSON, W. S. (1929) “Population.”Amer. J. of Sociology34 (May): 959-975.
41.
TSUI, A. O. and D. J. BORGUE (1978) “Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.”Population Bull.33, 4.
42.
TEITLEBAUM, M. S. (1975) “Relevance of demographic transition theory for developing countries.”Science188 (May).
43.
United Nations (1978) Trends and Prospects, 1978. New York: United Nations.
44.
United Nations (1968) National Accounts, 1968. New York: United Nations.
45.
United NationsResearch Institute for Social Development (1972) Contents and Measurements of Socio-Economic Development. New York: Praeger.
46.
World Bank (1980) World Tables. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press.
47.
World Bank (1979) World Tables. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press.
48.
World Bank (1976) World Tables. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press.
49.
World Bank (1975) Socio-Economic Data Bank, 1975, in World Tables, 1976, 1980.
