The relationship between international linkages and the nature and survival of political regimes has gained increasing attention in recent years, but remains one that is poorly understood. In this article, we make three central contributions to our understanding of international linkage politics and autocratic regime survival. First, we introduce and develop the concept of “autocratic linkage,” and highlight its importance for understanding the international politics of autocratic survival. Second, we use event history analysis to demonstrate that autocratic linkage has a systematic effect on the duration of authoritarian regimes. Finally, we complement our quantitative analysis with a focused comparison of autocratic linkage politics in the Middle East. We show that variation in Saudi Arabian support for autocratic incumbents in the wake of the Arab Spring protests can be explained in significant part by variation in linkage relationships.
al-RasheedM. (2011). Sectarianism as counter-revolution: Saudi responses to the Arab Spring. Studies in Ethnicity and Nationalism, 11, 513-526.
5.
AmbrosioT. (2009). Authoritarian backlash: Russian resistance to democratization in the former Soviet Union. London, England: Ashgate.
6.
AmbrosioT. (2010). Constructing a framework of authoritarian diffusion: Concepts, dynamics, and future research. International Studies Perspectives, 11, 375-392.
7.
BaderJ. (2015). China’s Foreign relations and the survival of autocracies. London, England: Routledge.
8.
BarbieriK.KeshkO. M. G.PollinsB. M. (2009). Trading data: Evaluating our assumptions and coding rules. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 26, 471-491.
BeissingerM. R. (2007). Structure and example in modular political phenomena: The diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions. Perspectives on Politics, 5, 259-276.
11.
BellinE. (2012). Reconsidering the robustness of authoritarianism in the middle east: Lessons from the Arab Spring. Comparative Politics, 44, 127-149.
12.
BoixC. (2011). Democracy, development, and the international system. American Political Science Review, 105, 809-828.
13.
BoixC.SvolikM. W. (2013). The foundations of limited authoritarian government: Institutions, commitment, and power-sharing in dictatorships. The Journal of Politics, 75, 300-316.
Box-SteffensmeierJ. M.ZornC. J. W. (2001). Duration models and proportional hazards in political science. American Journal of Political Science, 45, 972-988.
16.
BrinksD.CoppedgeM. (2006). Diffusion is no illusion: Neighbor emulation in the third wave of democracy. Comparative Political Studies, 39, 463-489.
17.
BrownleeJ. (2012). Democracy prevention: The Politics of the US-Egyptian alliance. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
18.
BrownleeJ.MasoudT.ReynoldsA. (2015). The Arab spring: Pathways of repression and reform. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
19.
BunceV. J.WolchikS. L. (2011). Defeating authoritarian leaders in postcommunist countries. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
20.
BurkeE. (2013, June). EU-GCC cooperation: Securing the transition in Yemen (Gulf papers). Gulf Research Center. Available from http://www.grc.net
21.
BurnellP.SchlumbergerO. (2010). Promoting democracy—Promoting autocracy? International politics and national political regimes. Contemporary Politics, 16(1), 1-15.
22.
CameronD. R.OrensteinM. A. (2012). Post-soviet authoritarianism: The influence of Russia in its “near abroad.”Post-Soviet Affairs, 28(1), 1-44.
23.
CoxM.IkenberryG. J.InoguchiT. (2000). American democracy promotion: impulses, strategies, and impacts. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
24.
DonnoD. (2013). Defending democratic norms: International actors and the politics of electoral misconduct. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
25.
EnnisC. A.MomaniB. (2013). Shaping the middle east in the midst of the Arab uprisings: Turkish and Saudi foreign policy strategies. Third World Quarterly, 34, 1127-1144.
26.
Escriba-FolchA.WrightJ. (2015). Foreign pressure and the politics of authoritarian survival. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
27.
FaroukY. (2014, April). More than money: Post-Mubarak Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf (Gulf Papers). Gulf Research Center. Available from http://www.grc.net
28.
GandhiJ.PrzeworskiA. (2007). Authoritarian institutions and the survival of autocrats. Comparative Political Studies, 40, 1279-1301.
29.
GeddesB.WrightJ.FrantzE. (2014). Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: A new data set. Perspectives on Politics, 12, 313-331.
30.
GleditschK. S.WardM. D. (2006). Diffusion and the international context of democratization. International Organization, 60, 911-933.
31.
GolubJ. (2007). Survival analysis and European Union decision-making. European Union Politics, 8, 155-179.
32.
GolubJ. (2008). Survival analysis. In Box-SteffensmeierJ. M.BradyH. M.CollierD. (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of political methodology (pp. 530-546). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
33.
HertogS. (2011). Rentier militaries in the Gulf states: The price of coup-proofing. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 43, 400-402.
34.
HeydemannS. (2013). Syria and the future of authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy, 24(4), 59-73.
35.
HeydemannS.LeendersR. (2011). Authoritarian learning and authoritarian resilience: Regime responses to the “Arab awakening.”Globalizations, 8, 647-653.
KalathilS.BoasT. C. (2010). Open networks, closed regimes: The impact of the internet on authoritarian rule. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
39.
KamravaM. (2012). The Arab Spring and the Saudi-Led Counterrevolution. Orbis, 56(1), 96-104.
40.
KarlT. L. (1997). The paradox of plenty: Oil booms and petro-states. Berkeley: University of California Press.
41.
Khashoggi: Al-ra’is Zin Bin ‘Ali asbah fi al-sa’udiyya makfuf al-yad wa la yumkinuhu “aml ay shay” [Khashoggi: President Ben Ali’s hands are tied in Saudi Arabia and he cannot do anything]. (2011, January16). Al-Arab. Retrieved from http://www.alarab.com/Article/352280
42.
KingG.KeohaneR. O.VerbaS. (1995). Designing social inquiry: scientific inference in qualitative research. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
43.
KingG.TomzM.WittenbergJ. (2000). Making the most of statistical analyses: Improving interpretation and presentation. American Journal of Political Science, 44, 347-361.
44.
KoeselK. J.BunceV. J. (2013). Diffusion-proofing: Russian and Chinese responses to waves of popular mobilizations against authoritarian rulers. Perspectives on Politics, 11, 753-768.
45.
KopsteinJ. S.ReillyD. A. (2000). Geographic diffusion and the transformation of the postcommunist world. World Politics, 53(1), 1-37.
46.
LeglerT.TiekuT. K. (2010). What difference can a path make? Regional democracy promotion regimes in the Americas and Africa. Democratization, 17, 465-491.
47.
LevitskyS.WayL. A. (2010). Competitive authoritarianism: Hybrid regimes after the cold war. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
48.
LiebermanE. S. (2005). “Nested Analysis as a Mixed-Methods Strategy for Comparative Research.”American Political Science Review, 99(3), 435-452.
49.
LichtA. A. (2011). Change comes with time: Substantive interpretation of nonproportional hazards in event history analysis. Political Analysis, 19, 227-243.
50.
MagaloniB. (2006). Voting for autocracy: Hegemonic party survival and its demise in Mexico. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
51.
MangerM. S.PickupM. A. (2016). The coevolution of trade agreement networks and democracy. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60, 164-191.
52.
MasunungureE. V.BadzaS. (2010). The internationalization of the Zimbabwe crisis multiple actors, competing interests. Journal of Developing Societies, 26, 207-231.
53.
McFaulM.SpectorR. A. (2009). External sources and consequences of Russia’s “sovereign democracy.” In BurnellP.YoungsR. (Eds.), New challenges to democratization (pp. 116-133). London, England: Routledge.
54.
McGillivrayF.SmithA. (2004). The impact of leadership turnover on trading relations between states. International Organization, 58, 567-600.
OdiniusD.KuntzP. (2015). The limits of authoritarian solidarity: The Gulf monarchies and preserving authoritarian rule during the Arab Spring. European Journal of Political Research, 54, 639-654.
57.
OzdenÇ.ParsonsC. R.SchiffM.WalmsleyT. L. (2011). Where on earth is everybody? The evolution of global bilateral migration 1960-2000. The World Bank Economic Review, 25(1), 12-56.
58.
PevehouseJ. C. (2005). Democracy from Above: Regional organizations and democratization. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
59.
PhillipsS. (2011). Yemen and the politics of permanent crisis. New York, NY: Routledge for the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
60.
PhimisterI.RaftopoulosB. (2004). Mugabe, Mbeki & the politics of anti-imperialism. Review of African Political Economy, 31, 385-400.
61.
RiegerR. (2014, July). In search of stability: Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring (Research Papers). Gulf Research Center. Available from http://www.grc.net
62.
RossM. L. (2001). Does oil hinder democracy?World Politics, 53, 325-361.
SchmitzD. F. (2006). The United States and right-wing dictatorships, 1965-1989. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
65.
SilitskiV. (2010). “Survival of the fittest:” Domestic and international dimensions of the authoritarian reaction in the former Soviet Union following the colored revolutions. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 43, 339-350.
66.
SingerJ. D. (1987). Reconstructing the correlates of war dataset on material capabilities of states, 1816-1985. International Interactions, 14, 115-132.
67.
TanseyO. (2016). The international politics of authoritarian rule. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
68.
TarrowS. (2005). The new transnational activism. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
69.
TeorellJ.DahlbergS.HolmbergS.RothsteinB.HartmannF.SvenssonR. (2015). The quality of government standard dataset (version Jan15). Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg. Available from http://www.qig.pol.gu.se
TolstrupJ. (2013). Russia vs. the EU: The competition for influence in post-soviet states. Boulder, CO: First Forum Press.
72.
TolstrupJ. (2015). Black knights and elections in authoritarian regimes: Why and how Russia supports authoritarian incumbents in post-Soviet states. European Journal of Political Research, 54, 673-690.
73.
UlfelderJ. (2008). International integration and democratization: An event history analysis. Democratization, 15, 272-296.
WeidmannN. B.KuseD.GleditschK. S. (2010). The geography of the international system: The CShapes Dataset. International Interactions, 36, 86-106.
79.
WeylandK. (2010). The diffusion of regime contention in European democratization, 1830-1940. Comparative Political Studies, 43, 1148-1176.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
