Much of our recent scholarship argues that public support in member countries is integral to the success of European Union (EU) policies and initiatives. Despite growing evidence that public support is also often crucial to attaining (and sustaining) EU membership—as evidenced by the volatile Maastricht referenda in Denmark and France and the unsuccessful Norwegian accession—there is little systematic research on accession countries. This study develops an analytic framework for understanding EU public opinion in applicant countries undergoing democratic transitions. Using data from a 1996 survey, the analysis tests both utilitarian and value models of support and finds general attitudes toward democracy and capitalism and an individual's political partisanship to be the strongest determinants of support for EU membership. The results challenge dominant explanations for public opinion in member states and suggest how we might better adapt these models to examine attitudes in applicant countries.
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