Stabilising Afghanistan

Abstract

This article comprises two parts: the first in which the author examines the ramifications of the process of stabilising Afghanistan and the second in which he discusses a possible role for the Russia, India and China (RIC) trilateral. The author cites the results of a survey conducted in all thirty-four provinces of Afghanistan, which mainly concerns the attitude of the people and the national mood in 2004 and 2008. The results revealed very low levels of confidence. The crux of the problem was that the war cannot be won, nor the Afghan situation addressed by the military approach. The situation is extremely complex and tense mainly because of the lack of strategic coherence within the West and their attempt to promote a Western set-up in Afghanistan without heed to, or respect for, the Afghan condition. The focus has been only on capturing the Al-Qaeda through Operation Enduring Freedom. The role of Pakistan was also quite complex and the question was whether it should be seen as part of the problem or part of the solution. The American’s Afghan policy was insensitive to the geopolitical complexity in the region. Since all three countries were affected by the situation in Afghanistan, stability in this area was in the interests of all. It was necessary, therefore, to make the trilateral more relevant and the election in September 2009 provided a good occasion to look for a common agenda and adopt a proactive stance. The RIC could encourage the exploration of a new political set-up in Afghanistan by taking into account its national conditions. They could also stress a leading role for the United Nations and explore a regional approach, whereby the various organisations in the region could be interconnected to explore solutions.