Bringing Back Intuition into Scenario Planning

Abstract

Intuitive logics is a prominent scenario planning method of strategic foresight that organizations use to plan in the context of uncertain future operating environments. Designed to counter linear forecasting approaches, intuitive logics is a method for envisioning and embracing multiple futures. Rooted in the works of Herman Kahn and Pierre Wack in military and corporate contexts, intuitive logics values gut feeling and tacit knowledge to foster creativity and challenge conventional thinking. Despite the name, and the importance of intuition in intuitive logics intuition remains poorly defined and operationalized in scenario practice. This article addresses this by integrating insights from psychology and management intuition research with the intuitive logics literature. Seven key themes, found in both disciplinary settings, offer practical recommendations to advance the use of intuition in the intuitive logics method thereby enriching strategic dialogue and enhancing organizational adaptability in uncertain contexts. In practical terms, bringing intuition research into scenario planning could lead to the development of scenarios that better capture and make actionable the experiences and tacit knowledge of managers as they work to navigate their organizations toward unknown futures.

Scenario planning, a type of foresight, was introduced over 50 years ago to move beyond the limits of linear, deterministic thinking in traditional forecast-based planning. Instead of assuming predictable futures, scenario builders create alternative futures that highlight possible paths and draw attention to the importance of disruptive change. ¹ There are a number of different approaches to scenario planning. This article focuses on the intuitive logics method of scenario planning, a prominent approach that seeks to incorporate intuition in the process.

We identify seven themes that constitute intersections between the intuition and intuitive logics research streams and add depth to current understandings of the role of intuition in scenario planning. These themes, which make up the subsections of our analysis, are narratives; somatic markers; automated expertise and holistic hunch; remarkable people; collective intuitions; protecting against the downside of intuition; and integrating intuition and analysis (see the Appendix for a summary of our analytical approach). Indeed, cross-field integration can benefit strategic decision-making in business and beyond. Our overall aim is to help scenario teams and managers be more explicit and organized in their use of intuition, build their confidence in using intuition when it is appropriate to do so, and enable more effective re-framings, imaginings and visualizations of possible future states—all with the result of making better long-term decisions.

What Is Intuitive Logics?

Intuitive logics is often described as the standard method of scenario planning. It uses “the intuitions of the stakeholders involved” ² to produce a small number of “cuts through the future” that aim to challenge conventional wisdom, reframe perceptions, and change mindsets. ³ The roots−and the uniqueness−of the method can be traced to the pioneering works of the American physicist Herman Kahn, who worked with the US military and at the RAND corporation, and the French oil executive Pierre Wack (along with Ted Newland) at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s. ⁴ Wack’s work in particular is pertinent to the role of intuition in intuitive logics because he suggested that a manager’s intuitive feel for a situation could be used to overcome the limits of the linear, reductionist, and deterministic thinking which dominated forecast-based planning practices at that time. ⁵ According to Wack’s biographer Thomas Chermack, Wack was fascinated by the human mind as a “remarkably sophisticated instrument not well understood” and came to the realization that “there were ways of understanding beyond the five senses.” ⁶ Coincidentally, at this time intuition was just beginning to be theorized and researched systematically by behavioral scientists. ⁷ However, these two parallel streams of thought were not connected together then, likely as they were occurring in such different settings.

Intuitive logics is unique as a strategic decision-making tool in that it explicitly gives legitimacy to stakeholders’ gut feelings and hunches which otherwise might get obscured through an over-emphasis on conventional analytical forecasting techniques. In so doing it supports creativity in decision-making via a “disciplined imagination” which can open up “new, critical and different future possibilities.” ⁸ Intuition is especially important in volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environments where there is precious little predictability or opportunity to make realistic forecasts using standard analytical techniques. ⁹ For a quick summary and reference guide, the fundamentals are summarized in Table 1.

Table 1.

Fundamentals of Intuitive Logics (Credit: Peter McKiernan).

Origins and Development	Stemming from work of Hermann Kahn at RAND Corporation/Hudson Institute (1950s); introduced into Royal Dutch Shell by Pierre Wack and others in 1960s. Shell planning group promulgated benefits via consultancy (e.g., Peter Schwartz) and academia (e.g., Kees van der Heijden). Positioned by many as standard approach to scenarios.
Approach	Mainly qualitative approach in contrast to highly quantitative forecasting methods used at the time
Process	Scope and diagnose project; Collect data; Build database; Analyze data; Synthesize data into themes; Identify key issues; Explore data set for drivers of change; Build scenarios; Write scenario drafts; Test scenario drafts for plausibility, etc.; Refine scenarios on basis of feedback; Use scenarios to inform strategic conversations
Sample Applications	Shell and 1970s oil crisis; South Africa democratic transition; Singaporean government national planning; UPS e-commerce growth; Covid-19 strategic planning
Evaluation and Criticisms	Provides opportunities to imagine longer-term futures than would normally. More needs to be known about the cognitive processes of how people “rehearse the future.” Unclear about what is meant by intuition and how it is used in the process. Lack of clear guidance about how managers’ intuitions can be accessed, articulated and applied in scenario work.

Intuitive logics has been described as the standard method of scenario planning consisting of a number of common stages, ¹⁰ though there are variations. ¹¹ First, planning teams decide on an issue focus for the exercise and determine the timescale they want to cover; For example, a soft drinks company might want to think about its beverages business in the next five years. Next, a list of driving forces is identified, often using standard political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental (PESTLE) factors. This step can be ongoing as strategic planning teams create living databases of weak signals that may indicate trends. For a particular set of scenarios and issues facing the organization, a relevant list of driving forces will be selected. These are then clustered into groups, which are assigned extreme, yet plausible, outcomes over the set timeline. For example, a cluster of unfavorable geopolitical conditions could include the loss of Russia as a market, pending an economic downturn or sanctions. A cluster of driving forces related to social wellness trends might include the extreme outcome that no one drinks soda of the existing formula in the next five years, which would impact the firm’s core business, perceived competitive advantage, and identity. Similarly, other driving forces could relate to the supply of water as a critical raw material, or to changes in the distribution and retail landscape. These clusters are organized relationally in terms of most impact (on the organization) and most uncertainty. Teams discuss, analyze, and debate which critical uncertainties should be chosen for the scenarios; Two are chosen to construct a scenario matrix. These constitute the axes, giving four quadrants.

For example, imagining that geopolitical shifts is placed on one axis, and shifting consumer taste preferences on the other, the scenario planners would discuss the upward and lower bounds of the scenarios (e.g., Political instability, trade barriers, or tariffs disrupt supply chains and limit market access, including the potential loss of key markets; Stable geopolitics and free trade facilitate global expansion and supply chain efficiency; Return to traditional flavors and formats or even outright rejection or politicization of novel ones; and, Cultural shifts favor all-natural, functional, and experiential beverages, with rapid adoption). Based on the four quadrants (e.g., high geopolitical stability/traditional consumer preferences), distinguishing features of the scenarios would be identified and storylines written to explain them. There are many moments in this process in which experts and planners identify out-of-the-box choices that draw upon their intuition, or indeed where their intuitive biases might actually block much-needed new ideas. The method is summarized in Table 2, drawing on aforementioned references, especially endnotes 1-12.

Table 2.

The Standard Intuitive Logics Scenarios Methodology.

1	Defining the main issue of concern and timescale of the scenarios.
2	Listing the driving forces: Driving forces are external factors or trends that could shape the future operating environment. Often a PESTLE framework is used to guide this (Political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental factors). A horizon scanning process can be used to identify, monitor and analyze trends and factors that may be indicative of important driving forces. These are often listed individually by scenario planning participants, and then discussed in a group setting, sometimes as part of a scenarios workshop. Often, organizations and consultancies maintain a living database of signals that can indicate trends.
3	Clustering the driving forces: Grouping driving forces and giving the groups a name. Clusters are based on driving forces with similar or related causality. This is often done in a workshop setting or group discussion.
4	Defining the cluster outcomes: For each cluster, defining two extreme, yet plausible outcomes over the designated scenario timescale.
5	Constructing impact/uncertainty matrix: Ranking the clusters to identify the most critical ones. The most critical clusters are designated to have the highest potential impact on the issue of concern and the highest uncertainty of outcomes. This is often done in a group. Two critical uncertainties are chosen to form the basis of the scenario matrix.
6	Placing bounds on the scenarios: For the chosen uncertainties, defining the extreme upward and lower outcomes of impact and uncertainty with the most optimistic or transformative on the higher side and the most conservative or restrictive on the lower bound.
7	Scoping the scenarios: Describing the key distinguishing features for four different scenarios.
8	Developing the scenarios: Writing storylines for each of the four resulting scenarios; this can include key events, actors, motivations, drivers, and chronology.

However, even though scenario planning is a prominent tool in foresight work, according to some scholars “deep questions remain with regard to its success” in application. ¹²

What Is Intuition?

Intuition is crucial in business management because it supports quick decision-making, helps managers navigate uncertainty, and fosters creativity; It has gained considerable prominence in management research in recent years and has been defined in various ways. ¹³ It is one facet of a dual system of human information processing in which: intuition is a product of so-called System 1 processes (also referred to as the experiential or reflexive system); or analysis is a product of System 2 processes (rational or reflective system) as popularized by the late Daniel Kahneman in his best-selling book Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011).

Many intuition scholars agree that intuition is a product of learning and experience, operates on the basis of pattern recognition, ¹⁴ manifests quickly and involuntarily as gut feelings, and takes one of two forms: automated expertise (quick identification of a familiar situation, and subsequent automatic access and application of stored knowledge related to the situation); or holistic hunch (judgment made through a subconscious process involving synthesis of diverse experiences, novel combinations of information, and strong feelings of being right). ¹⁵ While powerful, intuition can also be perilous if applied inappropriately (e.g., to problems which require probabilistic and mathematical-type judgments) or relied on without requisite experience to back it up, ¹⁶ leading to a number of well-documented systematic errors and biases in judgment and decision-making.

As far as intuition’s role in scenarios, futures, and foresight work is concerned, a body of research evidence supports the idea that experienced practitioners’ intuitions can be an effective decision-making tool under conditions of uncertainty, especially where exploration and reframing are integral to the manager’s goals. ¹⁷ In such circumstances, intuition performs a sensing function by bringing experienced practitioners’ deep repositories of tacit knowledge to bear on decision-making in a focused manner ¹⁸ analogous both to a compass for charting direction in uncharted territories and an early warning system for anticipating discontinuities in turbulent times. ¹⁹ This makes intuition a unique and potentially invaluable human asset for imagining possible futures and identifying potential strategies for realizing those futures. ²⁰

Connections between the Intuitive Logics and Intuition Literatures

We searched, reviewed, and analyzed the intuitive logics and intuition bodies of literature using the method described in the Appendix. We conducted a problematizing review of intuitive logics literature, focusing on its role in scenario planning and its connection to intuition. By analyzing selected academic articles and core texts, we critically reflected on how intuition is used and then proposed new ways of integrating intuition into scenario planning practices. That led us to identify seven themes. We elaborate on these themes, draw-out implications for scenario planning, and offer a recommendation for each which scenario planners can use when involved in futures and foresight work. A summary of these recommendations can be found in Table 3. We seek to integrate intuition theory and research with intuitive logics theory and practice, thereby addressing Schoemaker’s misgiving that “lack of intellectual grounding is a notable weakness in this fine art [of scenario planning] which is mostly drawn from practice.” ²¹ In framing intuitive logics in relation to the current state-of-the-art in intuition research, we hope to provide intuitive logics with a robust behavioral science research evidence base.

Table 3.

Summary of Recommendations.

Articulate Intuitions Narratively	Express intuitions through stories, metaphors, and “what if” questions to explore uncertainties creatively and identify overlooked issues
Tune into Embodied Signals	Be mindful of your physical and emotional responses during planning, reflect on whether these stem from relevant past experiences or unhelpful biases, and share intuitions in the form of stories, metaphors or images to enable group interpretation and exploration
Balance Experience and Imagination	Ensure both expert-based (automated expertise) and creative intuitions (holistic hunches) are considered, and test hunches about key uncertainties, including extreme but plausible scenarios that may defy analytical justification
Engage Remarkable People and Outsiders	Involve insightful (remarkable) individuals from outside the organization to challenge dominant perspectives and enrich internal intuition with fresh, external observations
Build Collective Intuitions	Share individual intuitions to co-create industry narratives and examine whether shared mental models (industry recipes) support or limit future thinking
Challenge Biases and Habituated Thinking	Counteract the limits of automated expertise by fostering diversity, reflective practices, and structured critique methods such as devil’s advocacy, premortems, backwards logic and dialectical inquiry
Integrate Intuition and Analysis Iteratively	Use an iterative approach that blends intuitive insights with analytical frameworks; develop the ability to shift between intuitive big-picture thinking processes (sensing) and analytical detailed thinking processes (reasoning)

Narratives

In scenario planning, the future is a “useful fiction.” ²² Narratives—which are defined as story arcs with a beginning, middle, and end—take center stage in the intuitive logics method and are deliberately “deployed as a means to engage intuition.” ²³ Narratives are engaging, imagistic, and personal; they can also be emotionally appealing. These qualities make them highly effective as communication tools. For example, in a scenario project for electric vehicle (EV) adoption as a response to climate change in relation to the critical uncertainties of EV regulatory context and maturity of EV technology development, a small number of narratives are created with captivating and compelling storylines (EVs rule the streets ²⁴ ). Emotionally engaging narratives such as these can be used to lead a group of participants through guided imagery exercises to explore the unfolding of events; As such they give stakeholders a concrete and intuitive feel for alternative futures ²⁵ rather than offering dry, abstract generalizations which, although they are more likely to appeal to System 2 thinking, are likely to be less compelling and convincing to the majority of participants. For example, Shell gives its scenarios engaging titles such as Sky 2050 or Scramble and Blueprints at the end of the process once the scenario has been developed.

One of principles of intuitive logics is the development of plausible stories which are arrived at by disciplining the imagination and the intuitions of experts from both inside and outside the organization. ²⁶ This is commensurate with intuition theory: System 1 is fundamentally an experiential system which encodes reality in images, metaphors, and narratives that are appealing, comprehensible, emotionally engaging, and imagistic, representing “events in a manner similar to how they are experienced in real life, involving location in place and time, goal-directed characters.” ²⁷ As such the production of scenarios is facilitated by the fluency and divergency with which intuitive thinking operates, whereas analytical thinking tends to be slower and more convergent.

This aspect of System 1 thinking can be leveraged in scenario work by asking participants to imagine futures and articulate their intuitions about the future in narratives that are episodic, and sequentially unfolding with a beginning, middle, and an end. For example, Shell’s Arie de Geus used the metaphor of the company as a living organism to ask: “is there life [for the company] after oil?” ²⁸ The use of intuition to develop stories encourages participants to cast their nets as widely as possible and think outside of the box. Framing futures as narratives makes the products of this process “intrinsically appealing” ²⁹ and hence more alluring, comprehensible and communicable, than presenting the same information as abstract data. The commensurability of narratives with human beings’ inherent cognitive and social capacities for intuitively imagining futures via storytelling ³⁰ gives them a powerful role in scenario planning both as a creative and a communicative device:

Recommendation 1: Acknowledge and admit your intuitions. Articulate them in narrative terms. Describe the intuitions that come to mind about uncertainties in your industry in stories about the future; use images and metaphors where appropriate. Discuss as a group to identify if there are relevant components that emerge which could otherwise have been missed. Develop shared stories about the future based on the intuitions of group members.

Somatic Markers

The gut feelings, hunches, and vibes emanating from System 1 are more than mere figures of speech. In the 1990s, the neuroscientist Antonio Damasio and colleagues found that the body produces physiological signals (so-called somatic markers from the Greek soma meaning body) which guide decision-making unconsciously. The somatic markers that accompany intuitions can include micro-sweating, increased heart rate, muscle tension, and changes in breathing exert a powerful influence over decision-making based on pattern recognition and matching derived from past experiences. For example, a person who has experienced a source of great uncertainty in the past (e.g., oil price volatility as a consequence of geopolitical factors) may feel highly uncomfortable and physically tense in the presence of cues that provoke thoughts of experiencing a similar situation in the future. These feelings can exert a powerful influence on decisions.

At a neural level, intuitions are the product of a brain which is incessantly busy with extrapolation of future events in order to be ready for what may happen; this is often framed in the emotions literature in terms of flight or fight and in the intuition literature as sensing opportunities (to be approached) or threats (to be avoided) based on pattern recognition. ³¹ Somatic marker theory provides evidence that it is possible for an individual to experience a bodily response (positive or negatively valanced) to external signals (these may be weak signals which may not be apparent to others) that guides action (e.g., approach or avoid) without the individual necessarily being either consciously or explicitly aware of the root cause, nor being cognizant of the influence that such physiological responses might be exerting over their thoughts and actions.

Somatic markers have implications for scenario planning. For one, decision-makers may already lean toward different choices of scenario themes, focal issues, driving forces, or assessments of fit based on unconscious processes linked to prior experience. In some cases, this chain of responses can be positive and thus signal approach (e.g., Steve Jobs intuition for a single, streamlined, elegant device that could be used for communication, computing, and entertainment purposes) or negative which signals avoid (e.g., Howard Schultz’ sense in the mid-2000s that Starbucks was drifting from its core mission which led to his decision to halt expansion plans and close hundreds of stores).

These are well-known examples of somatic reactions producing effective decisions; However, such reactions can also produce erroneous decisions. For example, a strategic planner, who has had negative experience with an external consultant’s foresight deliverable that is full of potentially interesting ideas yet requires unrealistic investment, lacks a strategy for implementation or board buy-in, may experience a negative avoid somatic response triggered by concepts that seem too wacky. Such a person may become uncomfortable with the idea of getting novel off-the-wall ideas through to senior management, which can admittedly be no small task. This may not necessarily be a bad thing, but awareness that this occurs and why (i.e., as a result of somatic markers triggered by negative experiences in the past) can help decision-makers to reflect on and question their responses when they feel the urge to say “no” or downplay out-of-the-box thinking. This meta-cognitive awareness can help practitioners to ask themselves what, in terms of their own thinking processes (including their intuitions), might lie behind it? Consequently, could important novel ideas be dismissed or cut because they are unduly influenced by prior negative experiences, or do managers simply not know what to do with such ideas? Furthermore, this unconscious somatic process could explain how some people perceive and respond viscerally to so-called weak signals without their conscious analytical mind (System 2) being fully aware of why the signal was noticed, or why it may be significant.

Acknowledging intuitions in the form of a bodily felt sense as a type of data is an important first step in decision-making and planning, ³² however lack of necessary explanation or justification to other stakeholders−especially those who perhaps because of their cognitive style rely more on data-driven reasoning−can cause resistance and lack of buy-in to an individual’s intuition. This is another reason it can be helpful to communicate intuitions−which are inherently subjective−experientially in the form of narratives, metaphors, or images. These intuitions can then be refined in successive scenario planning rounds through interpretation (individuals share their intuitions with others to create collective understanding), integration (teams develop shared mental models and coordinated action based on collective understanding), and institutionalization (organization embeds new knowledge into its plans for the future). ³³ As well as being important in the communication process, interpreting intuitions may also change both the intuition itself and the decision-makers’ mental models in a process of individual and organizational learning:

Recommendation 2: Be watchful of your body while working on strategic plans. Ask yourself, “Are there bodily signals that could be alerting me to opportunities?” Also, “Anything alerting me to irrelevant dangers that could push me to dismiss new ideas? Is my reaction linked in a relevant way to past experiences? Are my past experiences coloring my thoughts and actions unconsciously?” Share intuitions in experiential form (i.e., images, metaphors, and stories) so as not to present them as facts, then discuss them in groups to identify if underlying ideas still hold or raise questions for further research to support or deny novel directions suggested by intuitions.

Automated Expertise and Holistic Hunch

As well as distinguishing between intuitive processing (System 1) and analytical processing (System 2), researchers have also subdivided intuition itself into two types: (1) intuition as automated expertise (a judgment made through a partially subconscious process involving steps borne of past situation-specific experiences, replaying past learning, pattern recognition, and feelings of familiarity); (2) intuition as holistic hunch (a judgment made through a subconscious process involving synthesis of diverse experiences, novel, and creative combinations of information which impart a sense of direction often allied to strong feelings of being right). ³⁴

In the intuition literature, automated expertise is also referred to as expert intuition while holistic hunch has been referred to as strategic intuition or creative intuition. ³⁵ Automated expertise enables quick and effective responses in fast-paced dynamic situations ³⁶ and is useful when managers are working in an exploitation mode (e.g., working in familiar terrain, where events and outcomes can be planned for against a backdrop of substantial prior learning). However, one of the criticisms of approaches to scenario planning, which rely on past learnings, is that they can be too close to the business-as-usual trajectory and produce scenarios that lack diversity, so there may be a need to find ways of producing maximally diverse scenarios. ³⁷ Automated expertise can include bias thinking toward established, already known and knowable frames of reference; It can also elicit the kinds of somatic markers which can signal avoid behaviors for the reasons discussed in somatic markers. ³⁸ Hence, there is a danger that intuitive logics could be overly reliant on expert intuition while not grasping its downsides fully and inadvertently fumbling intuition’s more creative aspects via holistic hunches. ³⁹

In scenario work, holistic hunch is important in VUCA environments. It works by unconsciously sensing underlying patterns or trends that are not immediately obvious and a product of divergent thinking processes; It enables the discontinuous breaks that convergent analytical, deterministic thinking, and expert-focused intuition are unlikely to bring about. ⁴⁰ Holistic hunch’s value lies in the fact that it is not bound by established norms but transcends habitual thought patterns. It enables planners to approach problems from fresh perspectives and step outside traditional frames of reference to challenge assumptions and embrace alternative ways of framing the future. By transcending the business-as-usual approach especially when managers are working in an exploration mode (e.g., searching for and trying radically new ways of doing things), holistic hunches can be “a source of intuitive wisdom and creativity.” ⁴¹ They are intimatory in that it is possible to intuitively recognize, albeit tacitly, a connection or a coherence among clues in the environment ⁴² that are not necessarily visible to others and which the analytical mind cannot fully articulate.

Holistic hunches serve as metaphorical peripheral vision which orients us to what is going on in our surroundings even though we may not be consciously aware of why a certain configuration of cues resonates as noteworthy or why a certain stimulus attracts our attention and might therefore possess potential longer-term significance. As such, holistic hunches are related to weak signal detection in that tuning-in to a weak signal gives rise to a sensation, or intimation, that something important may be about to happen. ⁴³ It is analogous to being able to sniff-out promising possibilities and having a good nose for significant issues. Scanning for and paying attention to weak signals as unstructured, fragmented, incomplete, and inadvertent environmental data provides knowledgeable and experienced actors with advanced indicators, via holistic hunches, which may precede a significant or novel event. ⁴⁴

This intuitively sensed information can be sourced from media, industry reports, conferences, experts, and myriad other sources online and in the physical world which foresighters collect and sometimes store as scan items in databases. Which signals to collect and label as scan items and which to discard is an intuitive process (hence the smell analogy). Signals and scan items are then interpreted and refined collectively into potentially valuable information regarding the specific context and articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. ⁴⁵ This peripheral vision can help seasoned managers notice and recognize weak signals which are opaque to others and offer a sense of direction, ⁴⁶ e.g., Apple noticing subtle shifts in consumer behavior and technology trends that led to the development of an all-in-one smartphone device.

The connections and intimations behind a holistic hunch may be revealed subsequently at the moment of insight (a eureka, aha, or light bulb moment) and then worked-through by verification. For example, in the early 2000s, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings had a hunch that DVDs would become obsolete as internet speeds improved. Hastings’s intimation led Netflix to experiment with digital streaming, eventually revealing the insight that consumers preferred instant, on-demand content which led to a revolution in the entertainment industry. Schwartz alluded presciently to this idea in one of the seminal texts of scenario planning, The Art of the Long View (1997), when he argued that one of the skills needed in futures and foresight work is the ability to “string small intimations into scenarios.” ⁴⁷

The idea that intuition manifests in two complementary ways (intuitive expertise and holistic hunch) has been overlooked but is potentially useful scenario work because automated expertise (expert intuition) is useful in generating themes, driving forces, and uncovering uncertainties in terms of extrapolations from past experiences or expert knowledge about what is possible; Holistic hunch (creative intuition) is valuable for identifying themes or forces farther from what is already known, thereby helping planners engage in out-of-the-box thinking.

A possible sequence is as follows: use holistic hunches to explore uncertainties, identify weak signals, and sense emerging trends; combine creative synthesis (hunches) with domain knowledge (automated expertise) to refine and build realistic scenarios; iterate between expert knowledge (to recognize what is plausible) and holistic hunches (to offer fresh views and challenges); use expert knowledge to evaluate strategic fit, operational feasibility, risks and consequences. In Table 4, we offer an example of how both automated expertise and holistic hunch can be important for developing compelling scenarios that lead to novel innovations and sales. Novo Nordisk, a market leading pharmaceutical company, developed scenarios for the future of diabetes ⁴⁸ that helped it transition to patient-centric devices and the first insulin delivery pen.

Table 4.

Types of Intuition in a Scenario Context and Examples.

Holistic Hunch	Judgment or choice about strategic issues, potential themes, driving forces, and/or scenario storylines made through a partially subconscious process involving synthesis of diverse experiences, novel combinations of information and a feeling of their importance.	Novo Nordisk’s Diabetes Futures combining technologies, patient empowerment and different ways health systems, regulatory environments and payment landscapes could evolve. Holistic hunch was to shift traditional industry focus from doctors to patients; this helped develop the insulin pen, the first user-friendly insulin delivery system patients could use without the complexity of syringes and needles.
Automated Expertise	Judgment or choice about strategic issues, potential themes, driving forces, and/or scenario storylines made through a partially subconscious process drawing heavily on past experience and knowledge and feelings of familiarity.	The aforementioned scenarios brought deep knowledge about payment systems, regulatory shifts, and technological trajectories from experts, without which, creative ideas would have faced serious implementation issues.

Tensions exist between automated expertise and holistic hunch in that automated expertise involves learning from past experiences whereas holistic hunch involves detaching from the past. One of the challenges of scenario work is reconciling or resolving the paradox of how the future might be similar to, but also different from, the past. ⁴⁹ Explicitly highlighting and valuing both types of intuition may help teams recognize and appreciate both automated expertise and holistic hunches and learn how to use them appropriately in the right circumstances and the right sequence. This can also help to facilitate communication between people who gravitate more toward one or other type of intuition:

Recommendation 3: Ensure a balance between expert and creative elements in scenario construction in terms of themes, driving forces, critical uncertainties, etc. Ask, “Are ideas stemming from both types of intuition taken seriously and discussed, even if challenging for some stakeholders? What does intuition-based experience tell us about the key uncertainties, and what are they? Do your holistic hunches suggest any extreme scenarios that may not be justifiable analytically but nevertheless are compelling, and if so what are they?”

Remarkable People

In the early days of scenario planning, pioneer Pierre Wack highlighted the importance of so-called remarkable people (RPs). RPs are “intensely curious sharp observers who understand the way the world works, have their finger on the pulse of change.” ⁵⁰ According to Wack, they are “capable and willing to offer challenge to the organization’s business-as-usual thinking” ⁵¹ such that an original, and sometimes out-of-the-box, contribution can be gleaned from them. They are typically one step removed from the organization and hence are likely to have different mental models which makes them able to detect patterns and coherences in the organization’s external environment that may be opaque to others, especially insiders. Wack’s idea was that even though the investigation, analysis, and critical appraisal of key uncertainties undertaken by internal experts is essential, it was not enough. Inputs regarding volatile or emergent issues such as new technology, geopolitics, etc. from RPs selected for their insights into the limits of what is possible can be invaluable in broadening an organization’s breadth of thinking about its future. ⁵² An additional benefit of RPs having outsider status is that it can help mitigate dysfunctional organizational behaviors such as groupthink. ⁵³

The issue of what makes a person remarkable is likely to have multiple dimensions but among them we believe are well-developed senses both of perceiving (seeing critical factors that may be opaque to others) and intuiting (sensing directions that others have not thought of). This gives RPs the ability to detect coherences, recognize patterns, notice and make sense of weak signals, and think divergently. They are also likely to have broad cross-disciplinary knowledge and be persuasive communicators. An example of one such RP is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, who warned about the dangers of highly improbable but high impact events such as the 2008 financial crisis. RPs can come from external think tanks or even specialized foresight consultancies who have a broad range of insights across social, ecological, political, technological, and legal developments. This can be combined creatively with expert domain insights from commissioning firms, but the process needs to be managed.

A corollary of Wack’s emphasis on RPs, who are by their nature distanced from the organization and able to think non-linearly but also thin-on-the-ground, is that meta-cognitive techniques such as mindfulness and mental relaxation could be used by non-remarkable people within the organization to help them cultivate their non-linear thinking processes that come more naturally to RPs. Using somatic awareness, mindfulness, distraction, mental relaxation, switching mental tasks, and sleeping on it as a brain-cleanser before starting a new project can help set the stage for a more open and intuitive approach to scanning, reframing, and narrative construction. It is possible to enhance creativity in scenario work by involving a wider group of stakeholders including both external and internal participants. ⁵⁴

This alerts us to one of the downsides of automated expertise and a potential solution to it: Intuition as automated expertise has implications for teaching and training scenario planning with less experienced participants such as MBA students or early career managers given that using intuition in scenario work requires substantial prior knowledge and experience in order to intuit critical uncertainties and develop narratives. A solution to this could be to require less experienced participants, such as MBA students or less experienced managers, to find and interview RPs to help them build credible scenarios as part of what has been referred to as an “action learning pedagogy” for scenario planning education. ⁵⁵

Future research can unpack the notion of remarkable, and how to identify and involve such individuals. For example, we need to know more about how the micro-processes of intuitive cognition helps such individuals produce effective scenarios. The individual mind is a core asset for any type of knowledge work including foresight, which deserves more dedicated attention. Foresight work, which requires strategists to imagine and think beyond what is known about the past, is a particularly relevant setting for the study of creative cognition in management. Remarkableness might also be related to neurodiversity, and practitioners and researchers are starting to take neurodivergence seriously as an asset to organizations for a range of tasks. For example, ADHD and dyslexia are associated with out-of-the-box thinking and Level 1 autism is associated with deep interests and knowledge in areas of specialist interest. Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Ingvar Kamprad, and Elon Musk are all believed by some to lie somewhere on various neurodiversity spectra:

Recommendation 4: Identify individuals who are not part of the ongoing strategic conversation within the organization but are acute observers who pay attention to the way the world works and have their finger on the pulse of change (i.e., remarkable people). Find out what such RPs have to say about the issue and work to combine the intuitions of outsider RPs with those of insiders. At the same time, discussions with insiders on the importance of intuition may be warranted for such integration work to be successful. On the other hand beware of insiders relying on pre-formed ideas that block them from being open to ideas emerging from RPs.

Collective Intuitions

In behavioral science literature, intuition is typically viewed as an individual-level phenomenon. But focusing on individual cognition does not exclude group-level intuition as an emergent aspect of a corporate culture in which the dynamic capability to intuitively sense opportunities and threats and build collective intuitions could present organization with a valuable, rare and difficult to imitate resource. ⁵⁶ An instance of this capability is the ongoing success of Shell’s scenario teams following their pioneering work since the 1970s under Wack, Newland, Schwartz, de Geus and others. ⁵⁷ Shell’s scenario developers embraced intuition and uncertainty, not shying away from thinking the unthinkable and used “science-based creative thinking” to produce neither wild fantasies nor rigid predictions. ⁵⁸ This core competence gave the business a vital edge over its competitors in times of great uncertainty such as the 1973 oil crisis.

One way in which collective intuitions can be utilized in scenario work is via industry recipe factors (IRFs). For example in the Hollywood film industry, one of the critical components that completes an industry recipe is the use of 3D digital animation software to the extent that this has become a “deep-seated cognitive” representation that drives behaviors. ⁵⁹ Over time IRFs can become so entrenched that they are both intuitive and shared, hence manifesting collective intuitions which can be used to produce scenarios and develop narratives collectively and intuitively, as well as quickly and efficiently. Other IRFs include hub-and-spoke models and class based seating in the airline industry and long product cycles and vertical integration in the automotive industry, which shape, sometimes unquestioningly, how things are done in these sectors.

Researchers have also drawn linkages between intuition (which is big picture conscious and unconstrained by justifying causal linkages) and complexity and emergence to the extent that scenario work can focus practitioners’ attention on “cross-scale linkages by harnessing both individual and collective [creative] intuitions” that are alert to the dynamics of complex systems and their emergent and non-deterministic characteristics. ⁶⁰ Perceiving cross-scale linkages is unlikely to be the preserve of individuals and more likely to be a collective process:

Recommendation 5: Surface and share individual intuitions about the future and use this process to build collective intuitions. Identify your IRFs. Ask how IRFs can be used to develop narratives quickly and intuitively, but also ask whether industry recipes might be constraining your thinking.

Protecting against the Downsides of Intuition

The view of intuition as presented by heuristics and biases researchers such as Daniel Kahneman is useful in scenario work because it draws planners’ attention to some of the errors and biases that intuitive judgments can be prone to. The list of such heuristics and biases is long and includes: stereotyping on the basis of entrenched mental models; confirmation bias as a result of favoring information that supports one’s preexisting intuitive beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence; the simulation heuristic whereby the likelihood of an outcome is based on how easy it is to imagine an event. ⁶¹ These biases, which tend to converge around predetermined ideas or outcomes, could be products of over relying on intuition as automated expertise thus highlighting the importance of holistic hunches in intuiting outcomes which diverge from predictable patterns and in supporting divergent thinking.

Expert intuition is best exercised in domains where managers have had the necessary learnings and experience. It is built up, in the words of Nobel laureate and founding figure of the “bounded rationality” school of thought Herbert Simon, as a result of analyses of prior situations becoming “frozen into habit [this giving] the capacity for rapid response through recognition.” ⁶² However, experience can be a double-edged sword in highly uncertain and indeterministic situations because prior analyses may not apply to new situations, may distract attention from novel aspects of a situation, and cause managers to overlook emergent and peripheral vision issues. As a result, automated expertise may lead to stereotyping, confirmation biases, and the imagining of future events based on past experiences. This downside can be remedied by creating the conditions for out-of-the-box thinking, catalyzed by the inputs of remarkable people and adopting techniques which suspend judgment and create mental space for new insights to emerge. The challenge for experienced participants in scenario work is how best to combine both automated expertise and holistic hunch and learn how to leverage both as sources of power by using them in the right circumstances.

As well as intuitions being subject to systematic errors as a result of these various heuristics, they may also be affected by mangers’ cognitive styles and their mood states. Managers should be aware of the potential influence of personal preferences and emotions; They should be schooled in how to avoid them or work with them, for example by having a mix of cognitive styles within scenario planning groups, being aware of the strengths and weaknesses of their own thinking processes and of the influence of emotions (both positive and negative) on decision-making and problem solving. For example, a negative emotional state can promote rumination and overly analytical thinking, constraining divergent and creative thinking processes. It is advisable to avoid making major decisions in states of emotional volatility. The fluency and the affective component of intuitive thinking can give rise to strong feelings of rightness which in turn determine the extent and probability with which System 2 analytical processes will be engaged. Problems can arise when these strong feelings of rightness reduce the likelihood of System 2 intervention even though such intervention may be desirable. Moreover, because the intuitive system is faster than the analytical system, intuition typically precedes rational analysis, allied to the fact that intuition is affectively charged with gut feelings giving it much greater potency than System 2. ⁶³ A potential downside is that a quickly arrived at and confidently held intuition may form the basis of a poor quality decision. ⁶⁴

These downsides require planners to be aware of their thinking style and emotional states to guard against being overly optimistic about going with their gut when making consequential decisions. Intuitions can be opened up to critical scrutiny using: (1) “dialectal inquiry” whereby sub-groups develop alternative strategies based on their intuitions and then later come together to debate the assumptions and recommendations of the alternative positions; (2) “devil’s advocacy” whereby one sub-group offers its intuitions and the other sub-group critically probes the first sub-group’s proposals; ⁶⁵ (3) “backward logic” method in which a view of the end state of an unfolding scenario is worked backward to determine what may have happened to bring about the particular state; ⁶⁶ (4) similar to the latter is the “premortems” innovated by decision researcher Gary Klein in which the team uses a narrative-in-reverse process to imagine that an intuition has been heeded with catastrophic results, and the clock is rewound to try and uncover why things went so badly before the calamity actually happens: ⁶⁷

Recommendation 6: Recognize the limits of automated expertise, especially in uncertain or novel environments, and actively seek divergent perspectives, adopt technique to interrupt habitual thinking and create space for new patterns and insights to emerge. Foster self-reflection, diversify scenario planning teams, and acknowledge and alleviate the influence of mood on thinking. Engage in structured critical reflection through dialectical inquiry, devil’s advocacy, backwards logic, and premortems.

Integrating Intuition and Analysis

We conclude our analysis by considering the relationship between intuition and analysis. One of the principles of intuitive logics is that in asking and seeking to resolve the question of “What might happen in the future?” a satisfactory response cannot be produced exclusively by rational analysis. In making this claim, there is no suggestion that analysis is not important, rather in the face of the uncertainties and indeterminacies that are an inextricable part of making sense of futures that are non-forecastable, analysis cannot do the job alone.

Any consideration of the question involves indispensable roles for “intuition and creativity” alongside rationality and analytics. ⁶⁸ This position is in keeping with Herbert Simon’s general precept that the effective manager “does not have the luxury of choosing between intuitive and analytical approaches” and that the effective manager uses both intuition and analysis. ⁶⁹ Intuitive logics is commensurate with Simon’s view in that it seeks to combine the intuition of informed actors within a logical, formal, and structured approach, thereby accessing but also disciplining their intuitive minds. ⁷⁰ Also, consistent with the principles of pioneers such as Field Marshall Lord Allanbrooke in the British military, as well as Wack in the corporate world, scenario planners are urged to think outside the box and complement their analyses with intuitions in an iterative process in which “exploiting intuition and asking the right questions alternates with rational thinking to find the right answers.” ⁷¹ Such an approach gets the best of both worlds by integrating “narratives [intuitions] and numbers [analytics]” ⁷² and provides decision-makers with early warnings of potential discontinuities ahead. ⁷³ In this regard, scenario work is an inductive process in which there may be several rounds of iteration between intuition and analysis. ⁷⁴ The Delphi technique could be a useful tool here by having experts from inside and outside the organization offer their intuitions about emerging trends or disruptive events followed by synthesis and feedback based on data and how their intuition stacks up against others in the expert group:

Recommendation 7: Approach scenario planning as an iterative dialogue between intuitive insight and rational analysis to ensure that both imaginative possibilities and analytical rigor shape strategic thinking. Embed intuitive thinking within formal scenario planning frameworks (such as intuitive logics) especially under conditions of uncertainty where probabilities are unknowable. Shift between big picture intuitive thinking (the forest) and detail-oriented analysis (the trees).

How Should Our Recommendations Be Applied?

Intuition has a critical role to play in scenario planning for three main reasons. First, scenario planning acknowledges that the future may not resemble the past and cannot always be predicted using deterministic models. ⁷⁵ Intuition supports the development of rich, imaginative and out-of-the-box thinking, narratives that enable foresight practitioners to synthesize tacit knowledge and gut feelings into coherent but novel scenarios. It does so by drawing on expert knowledge of insiders and the bigger picture view from outsiders and thereby facilitates divergent thinking and creative exploration rooted in the core capabilities of the organization; This helps uncover unanticipated threats and opportunities.

Second, intuition, in the form of holistic hunch, helps planners detect patterns and coherences, connect disparate pieces of information, and imagine plausible yet novel outcomes, particularly in situations of high uncertainty or indeterminism where conventional forecasting fails. In so doing, the use of intuition as a sensing system provides a behavioral science basis, and hence legitimization, for the detection and interpretation of weak signals (i.e., subtle or fragmented) and often ambiguous indicators of possible future developments that may not yet be supported by concrete data. These signals, often overlooked by traditional analytical methods, can serve as early warnings of significant change. Also, intuition is related to serendipity as a form of uncertainty/indeterminacy in that they both involve recognizing and acting on unexpected or emerging insights or opportunities. ⁷⁶

Last, intuition becomes especially valuable in navigating uncertainty ⁷⁷ where outcomes are hard to quantify in probabilistic terms and in dealing with indeterministic environments where cause-and-effect logic breaks down. In such contexts, planners must rely on holistic hunches to explore extreme possibilities, foster agility, and cultivate antifragile strategies. It is under these circumstances where the intuitions of experienced participants and remarkable people come into their own. Ultimately, intuition enhances the ability of organizations to learn, adapt, and prepare for alternative futures; In the long view, it supports planning as learning. ⁷⁸

These recommendations are targeted at the leaders of scenario planning exercises: lead consultants, strategist, managers, and executives, who have some governance over the process and can potentially direct participants. However, the recommendations are relevant for anyone engaging in scenario planning, as anyone can raise these points or encourage discussion about intuition in scenario projects. An easy start would be for anyone who will be working on a scenario project, even one that does not strictly use intuitive logics, to read, circulate, and discuss this article among others in the team. A constructive discussion about these very questions could go a long way to increasing awareness of blind spots and openness to new ideas while building intuitive intelligence. We believe that by acknowledging intuition and incorporating it into decision-making processes, managers can become better foresight practitioners and also promote organizational learning.