A Post-Mortem Analysis of Opinion and Exit Polls in West Bengal in May 2001

Abstract

Statewide assembly election was held in May 2001 in West Bengal, where an alliance of leftist political parties has been in power since 1977. All opinion and exit polls conducted in the state predicted a closely contested election with a very slim projected majority for the ruling alliance, if at all. The actual outcome was another landslide victory for them. This paper reviews these opinion and exit poll results and shows certain statistical inconsistencies in their projected figures. A brief analysis of 2001 election results reveals some statistically significant evidence for the presence of anti-incumbancy factor acting against the ruling alliance candidates. This analysis also indicates that there was no significant decrease in the fragmentation of opposition votes in 2001 election compared to the most recent assembly election in 1996 and the most recent parliamentary election in 1999.