Abstract
The marked post-war expansion in the secondary school population is explained by both the growth in the overall population and by the heightened aspirations and expectations which have resulted in an increasing rate of retention. It is here demonstrated on the basis of a number of apparently tenable assumptions that in the approaching decades both tendencies will continue to put heavy strains upon the school system. A strong case can be put for an appeal to demographers to apply themselves to the problems of educational planning.
The area of greatest growth and greatest uncertainty is the 15–18 age group. This is largely a ‘new’ school population, coming from a different socio-economic stratum than the pre-war 8–10 per cent of the age-group from middle-class educated homes who were generally destined for university, or for a predetermined career, and may have very different expectations.
Many important policy decisions must be made in relation to this expanded group, but the research evidence available and upon which these can be based, is fragmented and scanty. It is to help alleviate this situation that the research project from which this report is an early product is directed.