The Psychiatry Ashes Test March update

Building on their initial Stroke Power scores, both teams have started promisingly – adding significant runs (derived from citations of Batting Papers) in the very first month of play (see Scoreboard, Figure 1).

Figure 1.

Scoreboard.

The Batting Papers of Malhi, Berk, Martin and Scott, on the ANZJP team, and O’Neill, on the BJPsych team, have done well, but this may all change in coming months as Batting Papers are randomly bowled out – one from each team per month. To ensure this is achieved fairly, the Master of Scores and the Stats Gurus have devised a method that will make most people’s head spin (see Box 1).

Box 1. Method for bowling out Batting Papers.

In order to have a process for bowling out papers that is transparent and free from manipulation, be it by foreign powers or fallen journal editors, we shall rely on chance and money.

The chance comes in the form of a random number generator (RNG), which randomly assigns numbers to papers, and the numbers then decide the fate of the papers. Now it turns out that RNGs are not really random; they actually produce a mathematically determined series of numbers. Hence, two people using the same software can produce the same sequence of random numbers provided they both set the RNG going at the same point, and they do that by setting what is called the seed: same seed, same numbers. This makes the numbers totally verifiable by any conspiracy theorists: we provide you with the seed and you can check the series of random numbers.

Sadly, someone could still manipulate things by trying different seeds until they got their desired outcome, so we need a non-manipulable way to define the seed. Therefore, to define the seed, the currency exchange rate on a pre-defined day will be used to determine how many Indian rupees one could buy with GBP£1000 plus AUD$1000. These values rounded down and added together will define the seed. Once we have the seed, two series of random numbers will be generated, one for each team, and assigned sequentially to the publications at risk. In each team, the publication assigned the smallest number will be bowled out.