Psychometric Prediction of Recividism: Utility of the Risk Needs Inventory

Abstract

The efficacy of psychometric measures of recidivism is an important issue. Accordingly, the present study examines: (1)the predictive (criterion-related) validity of the Risk Needs Inventory (RNI); (2) whether RNI scores alone are better predictors than are scores moderated by Community Corrections Officers (professional override principle); and (3) whether inclusion of age and marital status as independent variables improves predictive validity. It was found that RNI total and risk category scores for both the unadjusted and override conditions significantly predicted both number and severity of reoffences for in-program and total recidivism measures. Age predicted number and severity of reoffences (inversely), but generally did not add significantly to the variance accounted for by the RNI items. While the RNI appears to have some utility, the prediction of recidivism remains a complex psychometric issue. However, it is likely that use of the RNI provides a more structured/objective assessment of recidivism risk. Although the variance accounted for is small (8–15%), nonetheless, use of the RNI results in correct classification of the majority of offenders. In addition, use of professional override would appear to be essential in order to differentiate between the reoffending behaviours of medium and high risk groups.