Prediction and Antitrust

Abstract

On June 23, 2010, the American Antitrust Institute sponsored a symposium on prediction and antitrust. Its purpose was to examine the role of prediction in the antitrust world and to explore the applicability of current and increasingly well-established prediction and forecasting strategies to the antitrust enterprise. This article both summarizes the various presentations and conveys the conference organizer's personal observations about the topic. After introductory observations that establish the centrality of prediction to antitrust analysis in the phases of planning, investigation, litigation, and remedies, it describes various tools used to make predictions. Special attention is given to mergers and cartels. The article concludes with a discussion of ways in which the antitrust community might be enriched by exploring multidisciplinary sources of experience that have the potential of improving our sophistication with regard to prediction and forecasting.