Development of a 3-Dimensional Prognostic Score for Patients With Symptomatic Peripheral Artery Disease: PAD 3D Score

Abstract

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a high-risk condition for cardiovascular (CV) events, but no specific prognosis assessment tool exists. We developed an individual risk score (PAD^3D) based on the combined predictive value for mortality, including (1) age, (2) severity of PAD, and (3) extent of atherosclerosis. Patients (n = 1310) with symptomatic PAD were followed up for a mean of 50 ± 26 months. The cohort was randomly subdivided into a test and validation cohort. All-cause and CV mortality were prospectively analyzed for PAD^3D score and in combination with classical risk factors. For the test and validation cohort (n = 655 each), all-cause and CV mortality were predicted (P < .001) by the PAD^3D score. Additional inclusion of classical risk factors did not increase discrimination compared with PAD^3D as “area under receiver-operating characteristic” curves were similar for both scores at any time point. Thus, the addition of the classical risk factors to PAD^3D did not further improve the prognostic value. The PAD^3D score provides a risk gradient of a 4.5-fold increase in all-cause and CV mortality. We developed a score for precise prediction of all-cause and CV mortality. The PAD^3D score promises to allow for personalized goals in risk intervention.