Abstract
Objective
This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of patients with colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) who benefit from postoperative chemotherapy (POCT) and to develop effective postoperative survival nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) in colorectal MAC patients.
Methods
Data of colorectal MAC patients who underwent surgery from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2020 were collected. Patients were grouped based on POCT, and intergroup analysis was performed using 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM). Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves were used to compare the prognosis between the 2 groups. Cox analysis was employed to identify factors associated with OS in patients with colorectal MAC who underwent POCT. The variance inflation factor (VIF) and bilateral stepwise regression were used to determine factors included in the model. Additionally, a nomogram was constructed to predict postoperative survival outcomes for patients. The discriminative ability of the nomograms was evaluated using the C-index and calibration curve analysis, the decision curve analysis (DCA) assessed the clinical utility of the nomogram, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve evaluated the nomograms’ performance.
Results
This study encompassed 6829 patients with colorectal MAC, among whom 2258 received POCT, and 4571 did not. Whether pre or post PSM, patients in the POCT group consistently exhibited a superior median OS compared to those in the postoperative non-chemotherapy group (P < .0001). For colorectal MAC patients undergoing POCT, OS was correlated with factors such as patient age, carcinoembryonic antigen levels, tumor deposits, perineural invasion (PNI), lymph node examination count, T staging, and Grade staging. Notably, a significant chemotherapy advantage was observed in patients without perineural invasion, those with lymph node examination counts exceeding 12, and patients with moderately differentiated tumors. The overall colorectal MAC patient postoperative OS predictive nomogram demonstrated a C-index of .74, with a calibration curve near the diagonal and a DCA curve indicating positive net benefits. In comparison to TNM staging, the ROC curves of the nomogram at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years demonstrated superior predictive capabilities (AUC: .80 vs .71, .78 vs .71, .77 vs .70).
Conclusion
This study revealed the characteristics of colorectal MAC patients who benefit from POCT and established effective prognostic nomograms, which can aid clinicians in designing personalized treatment plans for individual patients and promote precision medicine.
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Supplementary Material
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