Many aggregate-level studies suggest a relationship between economic inequality and sociodemographic outcomes such as family formation, health, and mortality; individual-level evidence, however, is lacking. Nor is there satisfactory evidence on the mechanisms by which inequality may have an effect. We study the determinants of transitions to a nonmarital first birth as a single parent or as a cohabiting parent compared to transitions to marriage prior to a first birth among unmarried, childless young adults in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 cohort, from 1997 to 2011. We include measures of county-group-level household income inequality and the availability of jobs typically held by high school graduates that pay above-poverty wages (i.e., middle-skilled jobs). We find that greater income inequality is associated with a reduced likelihood of transitioning to marriage prior to a first birth for both women and men. The association between levels of inequality and transitions to marriage can be partially accounted for by the availability of middle-skilled jobs. Some models also suggest that greater income inequality is associated with a reduced likelihood of transitioning to a first birth while cohabiting.
AllisonPaul D.1982. “Discrete-Time Methods for the Analysis of Event Histories.” Sociological Methodology13(1):61–98.
2.
ArroyoJuliaPayneKrista K.BrownSusan L.ManningWendy D.2012. “Crossover in Median Age at First Marriage and First Birth: Thirty Years of Change.” National Center for Marriage and Family Research, Family Profile-12-03. Retrieved August22 (http://ncfmr.bgsu.edu/pdf/family_profiles/file129368.pdf).
AutorDavid H.DornDavidHansonGordon H.2013. “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States.” American Economic Review103(6):2121–68.
5.
AutorDavid H.KatzLawrence F.KearneyMelissa S.2008. “Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists.” Review of Economics and Statistics90(2):300–323.
6.
BachrachChristine A.NewcomerSusan. 1999. “Forum: Intended Pregnancies and Unintended Pregnancies: Distinct Categories or Opposite Ends of a Continuum?” Family Planning Perspectives31(5):251.
7.
BeckerGary S.1991. A Treatise on the Family (Enlarged Edition). Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
8.
CardDavidDiNardoJohn E.2002. “Skill-Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles.” Journal of Labor Economics20(4):733–83.
9.
CarlsonMarcia J.VanOrmanAlicia G.PilkauskasNatasha V.2013. “Examining the Antecedents of U.S. Nomarital Fatherhood.” Demography50(4):1421–47.
10.
CherlinAndrew J.2009. The Marriage-Go-Round: The State of Marriage and the Family in America Today. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
11.
CherlinAndrew J.2010. “Demographic Trends in the United States: A Review of Research in the 2000s.” Journal of Marriage and Family72(3):402–419.
12.
CherlinAndrew J.TalbertElizabethYasutakeSuzumi. 2014. “Changing Fertility Regimes and Transitions to Adulthood: Evidence from a Recent Cohort.” Presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Boston, MA, May 3.
13.
EdinKathrynKefalasMaria J.2005. Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood before Marriage. Berkeley: University of California Press.
14.
EnglandPaula. 2015. “Sometimes the Social Becomes Personal: Gender, Class, and Sexualities.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, August 23, Chicago, IL.
15.
FrankRobert H.LevineAdam SethDijkOege. 2014. “Expenditure Cascades.” Review of Behavioral Economics1(1):55–73.
16.
GelmanAndrewKenworthyLaneSuYu-Sung. 2010. “Income Inequality and Partisan Voting in the United States.” Social Science Quarterly91(5):1203–19.
17.
Gibson-DavisChristinaRackinHeather. 2014. “Marriage or Carriage? Trends in Union Context and Birth Type by Education.” Journal of Marriage and Family76(June):506–519.
18.
GoldRachelKawachiIchiroKennedyBruce P.LynchJohn W.ConnellFrederick A.2001. “Ecological Analysis of Teen Birth Rates: Association with Community Income and Income Inequality.” Maternal and Child Health Journal5(3):161–67.
19.
GoldscheiderFrancesBernhardtEvaLappegårdTrude. 2015. “The Gender Revolution: A Framework for Understanding Changing Family and Demographic Behavior.” Population and Development Review41(2):207–239.
20.
GouldEric D.PasermanM. Daniele. 2003. “Waiting for Mr. Right: Rising Inequality and Declining Marriage Rates.” Journal of Urban Economics53:257–81.
21.
HannanMichael T.TumaNancy BrandonGroeneveldLyle P.1978. “Income and Independence Effects on Marital Dissolution: Results from the Seattle and Denver Income-Maintenance Experiments.” American Journal of Sociology84(3):611–33.
22.
HayfordSarah R.MorganS. Philip. 2008. “The Quality of Retrospective Data on Cohabitation.” Demography45(1):129–41.
23.
HofferthSandra L.GoldscheiderFrances. 2010. “Family Structure and the Transition to Early Parenthood.” Demography47(2):415–37.
24.
KallebergArne L.2011. Good Jobs, Bad Jobs: The Rise of Polarized and Precarious Employment Systems in the United States, 1970s to 2000s. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
25.
KearneyMelissa S.LevinePhillip B.2014a. “Income Inequality and Early Nonmarital Childbearing.” Journal of Human Resources49(1):1–31.
26.
KearneyMelissa S.LevinePhillip B.2014b. “Income Inequality, Social Mobility, and the Decision to Drop out of High School.” NBER Working Paper 20195. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
27.
KristalTali. 2013. “The Capitalist Machine: Computerization, Workers’ Power, and the Decline in Labor’s Share within U.S. Industries.” American Sociological Review78(3):361–89.
28.
LinKen-HouTomaskovic-DeveyDonald. 2013. “Financialization and U.S. Income Inequality, 1970–2008.” American Journal of Sociology118(5):1284–1329.
29.
LoughranDavid S.2002. “The Effect of Male Wage Inequality on Female Age at First Marriage.” Review of Economics and Statistics84(2):237–50.
30.
McLaughlinDiane K.LichterDaniel T.1997. “Poverty and the Marital Behavior of Young Women.” Journal of Marriage and the Family59(3):582–94.
31.
McLaughlinDiane K.StokesC. ShannonNonoyamaAtsuko. 2001. “Residence and Income Inequality: Effects on Mortality among US Counties.” Rural Sociology66(4):579–98.
32.
MoffittRobert. 1990. “The Effect of the U.S. Welfare System on Marital Status.” Journal of Public Economics41:101–124.
33.
MollerStephanieAldersonArthur S.NielsenFrancois. 2009. “Changing Patterns of Income Inequality in US Counties, 1970–2001.” American Journal of Sociology114(4):1037–1101.
34.
MurrayCharles. 2012. Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960–2010. New York: Crown Forum.
35.
National Bureau of Economic Research. 2010. “Business Cycle Dating Committee.” Cambridge, MA. Retrieved November9, 2015 (http://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html).
36.
OppenheimerValerie Kincade. 1988. “A Theory of Marriage Timing.” American Journal of Sociology94(3):563–91.
37.
OppenheimerValerie KincadeBlossfeldHans-PeterWackerowAchim. 1995. “United States of America.” Pp. 150–73 in The New Role of Women: Family Formation in Modern Societies, edited by BlossfeldH. P.Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
38.
OppenheimerValerie KincadeKalmijnMatthjisLimNelson. 1997. “Men’s Career Development and Marriage Timing During a Period of Rising Inequality.” Demography34(3):311–30.
39.
ParsonsTalcottBalesRobert F.1955. Family, Socialization, and the Interaction Process. New York: The Free Press.
40.
PayneKrista K.ManningWendy D.BrownSusan L.2012. “Unmarried Births to Cohabiting and Single Mothers, 2005–2010.” National Center for Family and Marriage Research, Family Profile FP-12-06. Retrieved August14, 2013 (http://ncfmr.bgsu.edu/pdf/family_profiles/file109171.pdf).
PickettKateWilkinsonRichard. 2009. The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger. London, UK: Allen Lane.
44.
PikettyThomasSaezEmmanuel. 2003. “Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998.” Quarterly Journal of Economics118(1):1–41.
45.
QianZhenchaoLichterDaniel T.2011. “Changing Patterns of Interracial Marriage in a Multiracial Society.” Journal of Marriage and Family73(5):1065–84.
46.
RackinHeatherGibson-DavisChristina M.2012. “The Role of Pre- and Postconception Relationships for First-Time Parents.” Journal of Marriage and Family74(3):526–39.
47.
ReedJoanna M.2006. “Not Crossing the ‘Extra Line’: How Cohabitors with Children View Their Unions.” Journal of Marriage and Family68(5):1117–31.
48.
ReedJoannaEnglandPaulaLittlejohnKrystaleBassBrooke ConroyCaudilloMónica L.2014. “Consistent and Inconsistent Contraception among Young Women: Insights from Qualitative Interviews.” Family Relations63(2):244–58.
49.
RobinsonW. S.1950. “Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals.” American Sociological Review15(3):351–57.
50.
Rose-GreenlandFionaSmockPamela J.2013. “Living Together Unmarried: What Do We Know about Cohabiting Families?” Pp. 255–73 in Handbook of Marriage and the Family, edited by PetersonG. W.BushK. R.New York: Springer.
51.
RugglesStevenAlexanderJ. TrentGenadekKatieGoekenRonaldSchroederMatthew B.SobekMatthew. 2010. “Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-Readable Database].” Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota.
52.
SchwartzChristine R.2013. “Trends and Variation in Assortative Mating: Causes and Consequences.” Annual Review of Sociology39:451–70.
53.
SelvinHanan C.1958. “Durkheim’s Suicide and the Problems of Empirical Research.” American Journal of Sociology63(6):607–619.
54.
StykesBartWilliamsSeth. 2013. “Diverging Destinies: Children’s Family Structure Variation by Maternal Education.” National Center for Family and Marriage Research, FP-13-16. Retrieved October30, 2013 (http://ncfmr.bgsu.edu/pdf/family_profiles/file134877.pdf).
55.
SweeneyMegan M.RaleyR. Kelly. 2014. “Race, Ethnicity, and the Changing Context of Childbearing in the United States.” Annual Review of Sociology40:539–58.
56.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2016. “National Longitundinal Surveys: The NLSY97.” Retrieved May9, 2016 (http://www.bls.gov/nls/nlsy97.htm).
U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. 2000. “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940–1999.” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 48, No. 16. Retrieved February4, 2009 (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr48/nvs48_16.pdf).
59.
U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. 2012. “Fertility of Men and Women Aged 15–44 Years in the United States: National Survey of Family Growth, 2006–2010.” National Health Statistics Reports, No. 51.
VogliRoberto DeKouvonenAnneElovainioMarkoMarmotMichael. 2014. “Economic Globalization, Inequality and Body Mass Index: A Cross-National Analysis of 127 Countries.” Critical Public Health24(1):7–21.
62.
WesternBruceRosenfeldJake. 2011. “Unions, Norms, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality.” American Sociological Review76(4):513–37.
63.
WilsonWilliam Julius. 1987. The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
