By integrating insights from economic and sociological theories, this article investigates whether and through which mechanisms friends’ fertility behavior affects an individual’s transition to parenthood. By exploiting the survey design of the Add Health data, our strategy allows us to properly identify interaction effects and distinguish them from selection and contextual effects. We use a series of discrete-time event history models with random effects at the dyadic level. Results show that, net of confounding effects, a friend’s childbearing increases an individual’s risk of becoming a parent. We find a short-term, curvilinear effect: an individual’s risk of childbearing starts increasing after a friend’s childbearing, reaches its peak approximately two years later, and then decreases.
AliMir M.DwyerDebra S.2010. “Estimating Peer Effects in Sexual Behavior among Adolescents.” Journal of Adolescence34:183–90.
2.
AmatoPaul R.LandaleNancy S.Havasevich-BrooksTara C.BoothAlanEggebeenDavid J.SchoenRobertMcHaleSusan M.2008. “Precursors of Young Women’s Family Formation Pathways.” Journal of Marriage and Family70:1271–86.
3.
Aparicio DiazBelindaFentThomasPrskawetzAlexiaBernardiLaura. 2011. “Transition to Parenthood: The Role of Social Interaction and Endogenous Networks.” Demography48:559–79.
4.
AxinnWilliam G.ClarkbergMarin E.ThorntonArland. 1994. “Family Influences on Family Size Preferences.” Demography31:65–79.
5.
BarberJennifer S.2000. “Intergenerational Influences on the Entry into Parenthood: Mothers’ Preferences for Family and Non-family Behavior.” Social Forces79:319–48.
6.
BehrmanJere R.KohlerHans-PeterWatkinsSusan C.2002. “Social Networks and Changes in Contraceptive Use Over Time: Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in Rural Kenya.” Demography39:713–36.
7.
BernardiLaura. 2003. “Channels of Social Influences on Reproduction.” Population Research and Policy Review22:527–55.
8.
BernardiLauraKeimSylviavon der LippeHolger. 2007. “Social Influences on Fertility: A Comparative Mixed Methods Study in Eastern and Western Germany.” Journal of Mixed Methods Research1:23–47.
9.
BillariFrancesco C.2004. “Becoming an Adult in Europe: A Macro(Micro)-Demographic Perspective.” Demographic Research3:13–44.
10.
BillariFrancesco C.PhilipovDimiterTestaMaria Rita. 2009. “Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioral Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria.” European Journal of Population25:439–65.
11.
BongaartsJohnWatkinsSusan C.1996. “Social Interactions and Contemporary Fertility Transitions.” Population and Development Review22:639–82.
12.
BramoulléYannDjebbariHabibaFortinBernard. 2009. “Identification of Peer Effects through Social Networks.” Journal of Econometrics150:41–55.
13.
ChristakisNicholas A.FowlerJames H.2007. “The Spread of Obesity in a Large Social Network over 32 Years.” New England Journal of Medicine357:370–79.
14.
CialdiniRobert B.RenoRaymond R.KallgrenCarl A.1990. “A Focus Theory of Normative Conduct: Recycling the Concept of Norms to Reduce Littering in Public Places.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology58:1015–26.
15.
CilibertoFedericoMillerAmaliaNielsenHelenaSimonsenMarianne. 2010. “Playing the Fertility Game at Work.” MPRA Working Paper, Munich, Germany.
16.
Cohen-ColeEthanFletcherJason M.2008. “Is Obesity Contagious? Social Networks vs. Environmental Factors in the Obesity Epidemic.” Journal of Health Economics27:1382–87.
17.
EastPatricia L.1998. “Impact of Adolescent Childbearing on Families and Younger Siblings: Effects That Increase Younger Siblings’ Risk for Early Pregnancy.” Applied Developmental Science2:62–74.
18.
EastPatricia L.JacobsonLeanne J.2001. “The Younger Siblings of Teenage Mothers: A Follow-up of Their Pregnancy Risk.” Developmental Psychology37:254–64.
19.
ElwertFelixChristakisNichola A.2008. “Wives and Ex-Wives: A New Test for Homogamy Bias in the Widowhood Effect.” Demography45:851–73.
20.
FeldScott L.1981. “The Focused Organization of Social Ties.” American Journal of Sociology86:1015–35.
21.
FeldScott L.1982. “Structural Determinants of Similarity among Associates.” American Sociological Review47:797–801.
22.
FestingerLeon. 1954. “A Theory of Social Comparison Processes.” Human Relations7:117–40.
23.
FletcherJason M.2012. “Peer Influences on Adolescent Alcohol Consumption: Evidence Using an Instrumental Variables/Fixed Effect Approach.” Journal of Population Economics5:1265–86.
24.
FowlerJames H.ChristakisNicholas A.2008. “Estimating Peer Effects on Health in Social Networks.” Journal of Health Economics27:1400–1405.
HeckmanJames J.1978. “Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System.” Econometrica46:931–59.
27.
HensvikLenaNilssonPeter. 2010. “Business, Buddies and Babies.” Working Paper, Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation (IFAU), Uppsala, Sweden.
28.
KeimSylviaKlärnerAndreasBernardiLaura. 2009. “Qualifying Social Influence on Fertility Intentions: Composition, Structure, and Meaning of Fertility-Relevant Social Networks.” Current Sociology57:1–20.
29.
KimCatherineGebremariamAchamIwashynaTheodore J.DaltonVanessa K.LeeJoyce M.2011. “Longitudinal Influences of Friends and Parents upon Unprotected Vaginal Intercourse in Adolescents.” Contraception83:138–44.
30.
KnechtAndreaBaerveldtChrisSnijdersTom A. B.SteglichChristianRaubWerner. 2010. “Friendship and Delinquency in Early Adolescence: A Study of Selection and Influence Effects.” Social Development19:494–514.
31.
KohlerHans-Peter. 2001. Fertility and Social Interaction: An Economic Perspective. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
32.
KohlerHans-PeterBehrmanJere R.WatkinsSusan C.2001. “The Density of Social Networks and Fertility Decisions: Evidence from S. Nyanza District, Kenya.” Demography38:43–58.
33.
KohlerHans-PeterBillariFrancesco C.OrtegaJosé A.2002. “The Emergence of Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe during the 1990s.” Population and Development Review28:641–81.
34.
KohlerHans-PeterBillariFrancesco C.OrtegaJosé A.2006. “Low Fertility in Europe: Causes, Implications and Policy Options.” Pp. 48–109 in The Baby Bust: Who Will Do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes?, edited by HarrisF. R.Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
35.
KravdalØystein. 2003. “The Problematic Estimation of ‘Imitation Effects’ in Multilevel Models.” Demographic Research9:25–40.
36.
KuziemkoIlyana. 2006. “Is Having Babies Contagious? Fertility Peer Effects between Adult Siblings.” Working Paper, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.
37.
LazarsfeldPaul F.MertonRobert K.1954. “Friendship as Social Process.” Pp. 18–66 in Freedom and Control in Modern Society, edited by BergerM.AbelT.PageC.New York: Octagon.
38.
LesthaegheRonvan de KaaDirk. 1986. “Twee Demografische Transities?” (Two Demographic Transitions?) Pp. 9–24 in Bevolking: Groei en Krimp, Mens en Maatschappij, edited by LesthaegheR.van de KaaD.Deventer: Van Loghum Slaterus.
39.
LyngstadTorkild H.PrskawetzAlexia. 2010. “Do Siblings’ Fertility Decisions Influence Each Other?”Demography47:923–34.
40.
ManskiCharles F.1993. “Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem.” Review of Economic Studies60:531–42.
41.
ManskiCharles F.1995. Identification Problems in Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
42.
ManskiCharles F.MaysharJoram. 2003. “Private Incentives and Social Interactions: Fertility Puzzles in Israel.” Journal of the European Economic Association1:181–211.
43.
MathewsPaulSearRebecca. 2013. “Does the Kin Orientation of a British Woman’s Social Network Influence Her Entry into Motherhood?”Demographic Research28:313–40.
44.
McPhersonMillerSmith-LovinLynnCookJames M.2001. “Birds of a Feather: Homophily in Social Networks.” Annual Review of Sociology2:415–44.
45.
MerckenLiesbethSnijdersTom A. B.SteglichChristiande VriesHein. 2009. “Dynamics of Adolescent Friendship Networks and Smoking Behavior: Social Network Analyses in Six European Countries.” Social Science and Medicine69:1506–14.
46.
MontgomeryMark R.CasterlineJohn B.1996. “Social Influence, Social Learning, and New Models of Fertility.” Pp. 87–99 in Fertility in the United States: New Patterns, New Theories (supplement to Population and Development Review 22), edited by CasterlineJ. B.LeeR.FooteK.New York: The Population Council.
47.
MurphyMichaelWangDuolao. 2001. “Family-Level Continuities in Childbearing in Low-Fertility Societies.” European Journal of Population17:75–96.
48.
MyrskyläMikkoGoldsteinJoshua. 2013. “Probabilistic Forecasting Using Stochastic Diffusion Models, with Applications to Cohort Processes of Marriage and Fertility.” Demography50:237–60.
49.
National Vital Statistics Reports, National Center for Health Statistics. 2010. Volume 59, Number 1, December8.
50.
OettingEugene R.DonnermeyerJoseph F.1998. “Primary Socialization Theory: The Etiology of Drug Use and Deviance I.” Substance Use and Misuse33:995–1026.
51.
PollardMichael S.TuckerJoan S.GreenHarold D.KennedyDavidGoMuong-Hyun. 2010. “Friendship Networks and Trajectories of Adolescent Tobacco Use.” Addictive Behaviors68:678–85.
52.
RijkenArieke J.LiefbroerAart C.2009. “Influences of the Family of Origin on the Timing and Quantum of Fertility in the Netherlands.” Population Studies63:71–85.
53.
RindfussRonald R.MorganS. PhilipSwicegoodGray. 1988. First Births in America: Changes in the Timing of Parenthood. Berkeley: University of California Press.
54.
RugglesStevenAlexanderJ. TrentGenadekKatieGoekenRonaldSchroederMatthew B.SobekMatthew. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
55.
SchoenRobertLandaleNancy S.DanielsKimberly. 2007. “Family Transitions in Young Adulthood.” Demography44:807–820.
56.
SievingRenee E.EisenbergMarla E.PettingellSandraSkayCarol. 2006. “Friends’ Influence on Adolescents’ First Sexual Intercourse.” Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health38:13–19.
57.
SteglichChristianSnijdersTom A. B.PearsonMike. 2010. “Dynamic Networks and Behavior: Separating Selection from Influence.” Sociological Methodology40:329–93.
58.
ThorntonArland. 1980. “The Influence of First Generation Fertility and Economic Status on Second Generation Fertility.” Population and Environment3:51–72.
59.
VeenstraRenéDijkstraJan K.2011. “Transformations in Adolescent Peer Networks.” Pp. 135–54 in Relationship Pathways: From Adolescence to Young Adulthood, edited by LaursenB.CollinsW.A.Los Angeles: Sage.
60.
WildeJoachim. 2000. “Identification of Multiple Equation Probit Models with Endogenous Dummy Regressors.” Economics Letters69:309–12.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
