Many countries that have recently undergone transitions to democracy have experienced increases in violent crime. Yet sociological theories have generally failed to consider the impact of political factors on crime. The author examines the relation between greater electoral competition and homicide at the subnational level in a country undergoing an uneven transition to democracy. In societies characterized by the presence of patronage networks, social and political changes that undermine the source of unequal exchange between actors at different levels in the social hierarchy result in a temporary loss of social control and an increase in crime. The relation between electoral competition and homicide is tested using electoral results from a sample of 1,800 Mexican municipalities. Greater electoral competition is associated with higher homicide rates across municipalities and over time, even after controlling for standard correlates of violent crime. Consistent with the hypothesis that the increase is due to the disruption of patronage networks, this association is present only in rural areas where patron-client relations are more common.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AlegriaRicardo E.1952. “Origin and Diffusion of the Term ‘Cacique.”’ Pp. 313–15 in Acculturation in the Americas, edited by TaxS.. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
2.
AnselinLuc. 1988. Spatial Econometrics, Methods and Models.Dordrecht, Netherlands and Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
3.
AnselinLuc. 1992. SpaceStat Tutorial: A Workbook for Using SpaceStat in the Analysis of Spatial Data. Technical Software Series S–92–1. Santa Barbara, CA: National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis.
4.
AnselinLuc. 1995. SpaceStat, a Software Program for the Analysis of Spatial Data. Version 1.80.Morgantown, WV: Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
5.
BaileyWilliam C.1984. “Poverty, Inequality, and City Homicide Rates.”Criminology22: 531–50.
6.
BartraRoger. 1993. Agrarian Structure and Political Power in Mexico.Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
7.
BeckerGary. 1968. “Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach.”Journal of Political Economy76:169–217.
8.
BlackDonald J.1976. The Behavior of Law.New York: Academic.
9.
BlackDonald J.1984. “Social Control as a Dependent Variable.” Pp. 1–36 in Towards a General Theory of Social Control, vol. 1, edited by BlackD.J.. New York: Academic.
10.
BlackDonald J. and BaumgartnerM.P.. 1983. “Toward a Theory of the Third Party.” Pp. 84–114 in Empirical Theories about Courts, edited by BoyumK. O. and MatherL.. New York: Longman.
11.
BlauJudith R. and BlauPeter M.. 1982. “The Cost of Inequality: Metropolitan Structure and Violent Crime.”American Sociological Review47:114–29.
12.
BlauPeter M.1964. Exchange in Social Life.New York: John Wiley.
13.
BlauPeter M. and GoldenReid M.. 1986. “Metropolitan Structure and Criminal Violence.”Sociological Quarterly27:15–26.
14.
BursikRobert J. and GrasmickHarold G.. 1993. Neighborhoods and Crime: The Dimensions of Effective Community Control.New York: Lexington.
15.
CameronA. Colin and TrivediPravin K.. 1998. Regression Analysis of Count Data. Econometric Society Monographs, no. 30. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
16.
CooneyMark. 1998. Warriors and Peacemakers: How Third Parties Shape Violence.New York: New York University Press.
17.
CorneliusWayne. 1975. Politics and the Migrant Poor in Mexico City.Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
18.
CorneliusWayne. 1977. “Leaders, Followers, and Official Patrons in Urban Mexico.” Pp. 337–53 in Friends, Followers, and Factions: A Reader in Political Clientelism, edited by SchmidtS. W., GuastiL., LandeC. H., and ScottJ. C.. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
19.
de RemesAlain. 2000. Banco de Datos Electorates a Nivel Municipal, 1980–1999 (Database of municipal elections, 1980–1999). Mexico City, Mexico: Centra de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
20.
DomínguezJorge I. and McCannJames A.. 1996. Democratizing Mexico: Public Opinion and Electoral Choices.Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
21.
DurkheimEmile. [1893] 1964. The Division of Labor in Society. Reprint, New York: Free Press.
22.
EnglandPaula, FarkasGeorge, KilbourneBarbara Stanek, and DouThomas. 1988. “Explaining Occupational Sex Segregation and Wages: Findings from a Model with Fixed Effects.”American Sociological Review53:544–58.
23.
FoxJonathan. 1994. “The Difficult Transition from Clientelism to Citizenship: Lessons from Mexico.”World Politics46:151–84.
24.
FriedrichPaul. 1968. “The Legitimacy of a Cacique.” Pp. 243–69 in Local-level Politics: Social and Cultural Perspectives, edited by SwartzM. J.. Chicago, IL: Aldine.
25.
FriedrichPaul. 1977. Agrarian Revolt in a Mexican Village.Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
26.
FriedrichPaul. 1986. The Princes of Naranja: An Essay in Anthropological Method.Austin, TX: University of Texas Press.
27.
GibbsJack P.1981. Norms, Deviance, and Social Control: Conceptual Matters.New York: Elsevier.
28.
Gonzalez CasanovaPablo. 1970. Democracy in Mexico.New York: Oxford University Press.
29.
GottfredsonMichael R. and HirschiTravis. 1990. A General Theory of Crime.Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
30.
GouldRoger V.1999. “Collective Violence and Group Solidarity: Evidence from a Feuding Society.”American Sociological Review64: 356–80.
31.
GouldRoger V.2000. “Revenge as Sanction and Solidarity Display: An Analysis of Vendettas in Nineteenth-Century Corsica.”American Sociological Review65:682–704.
32.
GreenbergDavid F.1977. “Delinquency and the Age Structure of Society.”Contemporary Crises1:189–224.
33.
GreenbergDavid F.1985. “Age, Crime, and Social Explanation.”American Journal of Sociology91:1–21.
GurrTed Robert. 1993. “Why Minorities Rebel: A Global Analysis of Communal Mobilization and Conflict Since 1945.”International Political Science Review14:161–201.
36.
HallAnthony. 1977. “Patron-Client Relations: Concepts and Terms.” Pp. 510–12 in Friends, Followers, and Factions: A Reader in Political Clientelism, edited by SchmidtS. W., GuastiL., LandeC. H., and ScottJ. C.. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
37.
HansenRoger D.1971. The Politics of Mexican Development.Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
38.
HausmanJerry, HallBronwyn H., and GrilichesZvi. 1984. “Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship.”Econometrica52:909–38.
39.
HegreHavard, EllingsenTanja, GatesScott, and GleditschNils Petter. 2001. “Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992.”American Political Science Review95:33–48.
40.
HibbsDouglas A.1973. Mass Political Violence.New York: John Wiley.
41.
HirschiTravis and GottfredsonMichael. 1983. “Age and the Explanation of Crime.”American Journal of Sociology89:552–84.
42.
HuthPaul. 1999. “Deterrence and International Conflict: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debates.”Annual Review of Political Science2:25–48.
43.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografía e Informática (INEGI).1992. Estadísticas Sociodemográficas. Vol. 3, Mortalidad (Socio-demographic statistics. Vol. 3, mortality). CD-ROM. Aguascalientes, Mexico: INEGI.
44.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografía e Informática (INEGI).1999. El ABC de las Estadisticas Vitales (The ABC of vital statistics). Aguascalientes, Mexico: INEGI.
45.
JankowskiMartín Sánchez. 1991. Islands in the Street: Gangs and American Urban Society.Berekeley, CA: University of California Press.
46.
JanowitzMorris. 1975. “Sociological Theory and Social Control.”American Journal of Sociology81:82–108.
47.
JudgeGeorge G., LeeTsoung-Chao, Carter HillR., LutkepohlHelmut, and GriffithsWilliams E.. 1988. Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics.New York: John Wiley.
48.
KelejianHarry H. and RobinsonDennis P.. 1993. “A Suggested Method of Estimation for Spatial Interdependence Models with Auto-correlated Errors and an Application to a County Expenditure Model.”Papers in Regional Science72:297–312.
49.
KornhauserRuth R.1978. Social Sources of Delinquency: An Appraisal of Analytic Models.Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
50.
LaaksoMarkuu and TaageperaRein. 1979. “Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to Western Europe.”Comparative Political Studies12:3–27.
51.
LaFreeGary. 1998. Losing Legitimacy: Street Crime and the Decline of Social Institutions in America.Boulder, CO: Westview.
52.
LandKenneth, McCallPatricia, and CohenLawrence. 1990. “Structural Covariates of Homicide Rates: Are there any Invariances Across Time and Social Space?”American Journal of Sociology95:922–63.
53.
LeviMargaret. 1997. Consent, Dissent, and Patriotism.Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
54.
LomnitzLarissa. 1982. “Horizontal and Vertical Relations and the Social Structure in Urban Mexico.”Latin American Research Review17:51–74.
55.
MasseyDouglas S.1995. “Getting Away with Murder: Segregation and Violent Crime in Urban America.”University of Pennsylvania Law Review143:1203–32.
56.
MessnerSteven F.1982. “Poverty, Inequality, and the Urban Homicide Rate.”Criminology20:103–14.
57.
MessnerSteven F.1983. “Regional and Racial Effects on the Urban Homicide Rate: The Subculture of Violence Revisited.”American Journal of Sociology88:997–1007.
58.
MessnerSteven F. and TardiffKenneth. 1986. “Economic Inequality and Levels of Homicide: An Analysis of Urban Neighborhoods.”Criminology24:297–317.
59.
MorenoffJeffrey and SampsonRobert J.. 1997. “Violent Crime and the Spatial Dynamics of Neighborhood Transition: Chicago, 1970-1990.”Social Forces76:31–64.
60.
MorenoffJeffrey D., SampsonRobert J., and RaudenbushStephen W.. 2001. “Neighborhood Inequality, Collective Efficacy, and the Spatial Dynamics of Urban Violence.”Criminology39:517–60.
61.
MuellerJohn and WeedeErich. 1990. “Cross-National Variations in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach.”Journal of Conflict Resolution34:624–51.
62.
PadgettLeon Vincent. 1966. The Mexican Political System.Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin.
63.
ParéLuisa. 1975. “Caciquismo y Estructura de Poder en la Sierra Norte de Puebla” (Caciquismo and the power structure in the Sierra Norte of Puebla). Pp. 31–61 in Caciquismo y Poder Político en el México Rural, edited by BartraR., BoegeE., CalvoP., GutiérrezJ., MartinezV. R., and PareL.. Mexico City, Mexico: Siglo Veintiuno Editores.
64.
ParkRobert E. and BurgessErnest. [1921] 1969. introduction to the Science of Sociology. Reprint, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
65.
ParkerKaren F., McCallPatricia L., and LandKenneth C.. 1999. “Determining Social-Structural Predictors of Homicide.” Pp. 107–24 in Homicide: A Sourcebook of Social Research, edited by SmithM. D. and ZahnM. A.. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
66.
PetersonRuth D. and KrivoLauren J.. 1993. “Racial Segregation and Black Urban Homicide.”Social Forces71:1001–26.
67.
Pitt-RiversJulian A.1954. The People of the Sierra.Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
68.
PowellG. Bingham. 1982. Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability, and Violence.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
69.
RossEdward A. [1901] 1920. Social Control: A Survey of the Foundations of Order. Reprint, New York: Macmillan.
70.
SaltzmanLinda, PaternosterRaymond, WaldoGordon P., and ChiricosTheodore. 1982. “Deterrent and Experiential Effects: The Problem of Causal Order in Perceptual Deterrence Research.”Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency19:172–89.
71.
SampsonRobert J.1983. “Structural Density and Criminal Victimization.”Criminology21:276–93.
72.
SampsonRobert J.1985. “Neighborhood and Crime: The Structural Determinants of Personal Victimization.”Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency22:7–40.
73.
SampsonRobert J.1986. “Crime in Cities: The Effects of Formal and Informal Social Control.” Pp. 271–312 in Communities and Crime, edited by ReissA. J.Jr. and TonryM.. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
74.
SampsonRobert J.1987. “Urban Black Violence: The Effect of Male Joblessness and Family Disruption.”American Journal of Sociology93:348–82.
75.
SampsonRobert J. and Byron GrovesW.. 1989. “Community Structure and Crime: Testing Social-Disorganization Theory.”American Journal of Sociology94:774–802.
76.
SampsonRobert J., MorenoffJeffrey D., and EarlsFelton. 1999. “Beyond Social Capital: Spatial Dynamics of Collective Efficacy for Children.”American Sociological Review64: 633–60.
77.
SampsonRobert J., RaudenbushStephen W., and EarlsFelton. 1997. “Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy.”Science277:918–24.
78.
ScholzJohn T.1998. “Trust, Taxes, and Compliance.” Pp. 135–66 in Trust and Government, edited by BraithwaiteV. A. and LeviM.. New York: Russell Sage.
79.
SchwerinKarl H.1973. “The Anthropological Antecedents: Caciques, Cacicazgos, and Caciquismo.” Pp. 5–17 in The Caciques: Oligarchical Politics and the System of Caciquismo in the huso-Hispanic World, edited by KernR.. Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press.
80.
ScottJames C.1977. “Patron-Client Politics and Political Change in Southeast Asia.” Pp. 123–46 in Friends, Followers, and Factions: A Reader in Political Clientelism, edited by SchmidtS.W., GuastiL., LandéC. H., and ScottJ. C.. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
81.
ScottJames C. and KerkvlietBenedict J.. 1977. “How Traditional Rural Patrons Lose Legitimacy: A Theory with Special Reference to Southeast Asia.” Pp. 439–58 in Friends, Followers, and Factions: A Reader in Political Clientelism, edited by SchmidtS.W., GuastiL., LandéC. H., and ScottJ. C.. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
82.
ShawClifford and McKayHenry. 1942. Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas.Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
83.
SimpsonMiles E.1985. “Violent Crime, Income Inequality, and Regional Culture: Another Look.”Sociological Focus18:199–208.
84.
UgaldeAntonio. 1973. “Contemporary Mexico: From Hacienda to PRI: Political Leadership in a Zapotec Village.” Pp. 119–34 in The Caciques: Oligarchical Politics and the System of Caciquismo in the Luso-Hispanic World, edited by KernR.. Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press.
85.
WilliamsKirk R.1984. “Economic Sources of Homicide: Reestimating the Effects of Poverty and Inequality.”American Sociological Review49:283–9.
86.
WilliamsKirk R. and FlewellingRobert L.. 1988. “The Social Production of Criminal Homicide: A Comparative Study of Disaggregated Rates in American Cities.”American Sociological Review53:421–31.
87.
WolfEric R.1956. “Aspects of Group Relations in a Complex Society: Mexico.”American Anthropologist58:1065–78.
88.
WolfEric R. and HansenEdward. 1967. “Caudillo Politics: Structural Analysis.”Comparative Studies in Society and History9:168–79.
89.
WolfgangMarvin E. and FerracutiFranco. 1967. The Subculture of Violence.London, England: Tavistock.
90.
World Health Organization (WHO).1998. World Health Statistics Annual, 1996.Geneva, Switzerland: WHO.
