One of the most widely debated issues in contemporary sociology has been how to interpret patterns of family change in the United States during the past four decades. Much of these debates focus on a thesis advanced by a number of scholars and political activists—that such features of family structure as high divorce rates and an increasing proportion of single-parent families have led to the decline of the family. Although past research has examined the causes and historical trends involved in family change, scholars have neglected important questions about family attitudes that have been raised in recent debates. Have levels of public concern with family decline increased over time? If so, what are the sources of these attitudes? And have changing levels of public concern with family decline led to the emergence of a new political cleavage? This study applies a theory of religious influence to answer these questions. Results show that public concern with family decline increased steadily after 1980, leading to a new and increasingly large cleavage in presidential elections. The analyses also find that high levels of concern with family decline are concentrated among evangelical Protestants who attend church regularly. In addition to extending sociological research on family change in new and fruitful directions, these results bear productively on theory and research in political sociology and the sociology of religion. I discuss their relevance to long-standing debates over political trends among evangelical Protestants and the influence of Christian Right movement organizations.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AbramsonPaul, AldrichJohn, and RohdeDavid. 1999. Change and Continuity in the 1996 and 1998 Elections.Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
2.
BaneMary Jo and JargowskyPaul A.. 1988. “The Links between Government Policy and Family Structure: What Matters and What Doesn't.” Pp. 219–61 in The Changing American Family and Public Policy, edited by CherlinA.. Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press.
3.
BestJoel. 1995. “Constructionism in Context.” Pp. 337–54 in Images of Issues: Typifying Contemporary Social Problems, 2d ed, edited by BestJ.. New York: Aldine de Gruyter.
4.
BlankenhornDavidJr. 1995. Fatherless America: Confronting Our Most Urgent Social Problem.New York: Basic Books.
5.
BrooksClem. 2000. “Civil Rights Liberalism and the Suppression of a Republican Political Realignment in the United States, 1972 to 1996.”American Sociological Review65:483–505.
6.
BruceSteve. 1994. “The Inevitable Failure of the New Christian Right.”Sociology of Religion55:229–42.
7.
BurnsNancy, SchlozmanKay, and VerbaSidney. 2001. The Private Roots of Public Action: Gender, Equality, and Political Participation.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
8.
BuellEmmett H.Jr. and SigelmanLee. 1985. “An Army That Meets Every Sunday? Popular Support for the Moral Majority in 1980.”Social Science Quarterly66:426–34.
9.
CarminesEdward and LaymanGeoffrey. 1997. “Value Priorities, Partisanship, and Electoral Choice: The Neglected Case of the United States.”Political Behavior19:283–316.
10.
CarminesEdward and StimsonJames. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics.Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
11.
Center for Political Studies.1972–1996. American National Election Studies. (Pre and Post -Election Surveys 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996; MRDFs and code-books). Ann Arbor, MI: National Election Studies [producer], Center for Political Studies [distributor].
12.
ChavesMark and GorskiPhilip. 2001. “Religious Pluralism and Religious Participation.”Annual Review of Sociology27:261–81.
13.
CherlinAndrew. 1988. “The Changing American Family and Public Policy.” Pp. 1–29 in The Changing American Family and Public Policy, edited by CherlinA.. Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press.
14.
CoalitionChristian. 1995. Contract with the American Family: A Bold Plan by Christian Coalition to Strengthen the Family and Restore Common-Sense Values.Nashville, TN: Moorings.
15.
DaltonRussell and WattenbergMartin. 1993. “The Not So Simple Act of Voting.” Pp. 193–218 in Political Science: The State of the Discipline, edited by FinifterA.. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association.
16.
DavisNancy and RobinsonRobert. 1996. “Are the Rumors of War Exaggerated? Religious Orthodoxy and Moral Progressivism in America.”American Journal of Sociology102:756–87.
17.
DiMaggioPaul, EvansJohn, and BrysonBethany. 1996. “Have Americans' Social Attitudes Become More Polarized?”American Journal of Sociology102:690–755.
18.
DobsonJames and BauerGary. 1990. Children at Risk: The Battle for the Hearts and Minds of Our Kids.Dallas, TX: Word Publishing.
19.
FalwellJerry. 1992. The New American Family: The Rebirth of the American Dream.Dallas, TX: Word Publishing.
20.
FranklinMark, MackieThomas, and ValenHenry. 1992. “Introduction.” Pp. 3–32 in Electoral Change, edited by FranklinM., MackieT., and ValenH.. New York: Cambridge University Press.
21.
FreemanJo. 1993. “Feminism and Family Values: Women at the 1992 Democratic and Republican Conventions.”PS: Political Science and Politics26:21–8.
22.
FurstenbergFrank. 1998. “Relative Risks: What Is the Family Doing to Our Children?”Contemporary Sociology27:223–5.
23.
GillRichard. 1997. Posterity Lost: Progress, Ideology, and the Decline of the American Family.Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
24.
GlennNorval. 1987a. “Continuity versus Change, Sanguineness versus Concern: Views of the American Family in the Late 1980s.”Journal of Family Issues8:348–54.
25.
GlennNorval. 1987b. “The Trend in ‘No Religion’ Respondents to U.S. National Surveys, Late 1950s to Early 1980s.”Public Opinion Quarterly51:293–314.
26.
GlennNorval. 1993. “A Plea for Objective Assessment of the Notion of Family Decline.”Journal of Marriage and the Family55:542–4.
27.
GreeleyAndrew. 1991. Faithful Attraction: Discovering Intimacy, Love, and Fidelity in American Marriage.New York: Tor.
28.
GreenJohn. 1995. “The Christian Right and the 1994 Elections: A View from the States.”PS: Political Science and Politics28:5–8.
29.
GusfieldJoseph R.1989. “Constructing the Ownership of Social Problems: Fun and Profit in the Welfare State.”Social Problems36: 431–41.
30.
HadawayC. Kirk, MarlerPenny L., and ChavesMark. 1993. “What the Polls Don't Show: A Closer Look at U.S. Church Attendance.”American Sociological Review58:741–52.
31.
HadawayC. Kirk, MarlerPenny L., and ChavesMark. 1998. “Over-Reporting Church Attendance in America: Evidence that Demands the Same Verdict.”American Sociological Review64:122–30.
32.
HammondPhillip, ShibleyMark, and SolowPeter. 1994. “Religion and Family Values in Presidential Voting.”Sociology of Religion55: 277–90.
33.
HoutMichael and GreeleyAndrew. 1987. “The Center Doesn't Hold: Church Attendance in the United States, 1940–1984.”American Sociological Review52:325–45.
34.
HoutMichael and GreeleyAndrew. 1998. “What Church Officials' Reports Don't Show.”American Sociological Review64:113–19.
35.
HuckfeldtRobert, PlutzerEric, and SpragueJohn. 1993. “Alternative Contexts of Political Behavior: Churches, Neighborhoods, and Individuals.”Journal of Politics55:365–81.
36.
HuckfeldtRobert and SpragueJohn. 1991. “Discussant Effects on Vote Choice: Intimacy, Structure, and Inderdependence.”Journal of Politics53:122–58.
37.
IyengarShanto and KinderDonald. 1987. News That Matters.Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
38.
KiewietD. Roderick. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues.Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
39.
KinderDonald. 1998. “Communication and Opinion.”Annual Review of Political Science1:167–87.
40.
LaddEverett. 1999. The Ladd Report.New York: Free Press.
41.
LichterDaniel. 1997. “Poverty and Inequality among Children.”Annual Review of Sociology23:121–45.
42.
LipsetSeymour Martin and RokkanStein. 1967. “Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignments: An Introduction.” Pp. 1–64 in Party Systems and Voter Alignments, edited by LipsetS. M. and RokkanS.. New York: Free Press.
43.
LukerKristin. 1996. Dubious Conceptions: The Politics of Teenage Pregnancy.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
44.
ManzaJeff and BrooksClem. 1997. “The Religious Factor in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1960–1992.”American Journal of Sociology103:38–81.
45.
ManzaJeff and BrooksClem. 1999. Social Cleavages and Political Change: Voter Alignments and U.S. Party Coalitions.New York: Oxford University Press.
46.
MurrayCharles. 1993. “The Coming White Underclass.”Wall Street Journal, October 29, p. A14.
47.
PopenoeDavid. 1993. “American Family Decline, 1960–1990: A Review and Appraisal.”Journal of Marriage and the Family55:527–55.
48.
PopenoeDavid. 1994. “The Family Condition of America: Cultural Change and Public Policy.” Pp. 81–112 in Values and Public Policy, edited by AaronH. J., MannT. E., and TaylorT.. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
49.
PresserStanley and StinsonLinda. 1998. “Data Collection Mode and Social Desirability Bias in Self-Reported Religious Attendance.”American Sociological Review63:137–45.
50.
ReedRalph. 1994. Politically Incorrect.Dallas, TX: Word Publishing.
51.
ReedRalph. 1996. Active Faith: How Christians Are Changing the Soul of American Politics.New York: Free Press.
52.
RegnerusMark, SikkinkDavid, and SmithChristian. 1999. “Voting with the Christian Right: Contextual and Individual Patterns of Electoral Influence.”Social Forces77:1375–401.
53.
RozellMark and WilcoxClyde. 1997. “Conclusion: The Christian Right in Campaign '96.” Pp. 255–69 in God at the Grass Roots, 1996: The Christian Right in the American Elections, edited by RozellM. and WilcoxC.. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
54.
ScammonRichard M. and WattenbergBen J.. [1970] 1992. The Real Majority.New York: Donald I. Fine.
55.
SherkatDarren. 1998. “Counterculture or Continuity? Competing Influences on Baby Boomers' Religious Orientations and Participation.”Social Forces76:1087–1115.
56.
SherkatDarren and EllisonChristopher. 1997. “The Cognitive Structure of a Moral Crusade: Conservative Protestantism and Opposition to Pornography.”Social Forces75:957–82.
57.
SherkatDarren and EllisonChristopher. 1999. “Recent Developments and Current Controversies in the Sociology of Religion.”Annual Review of Sociology25:363–94.
58.
SigelmanLee and PresserStanley. 1988. “Measuring Public Support for the New Christian Right: The Perils of Point Estimation.”Public Opinion Quarterly52:325–37.
59.
SkolnickArlene. 1991. Embattled Paradise: The American Family in an Age of Uncertainty.New York: Basic Books.
60.
SmithChristian. 1998. American Evangelicalism: Embattled and Thriving.Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
61.
SmithTom W.1990. “Classifying Protestant Denominations.”Review of Religious Research31:225–45.
62.
SpainDaphne and BianchiSuzanne. 1996. Balancing Act: Motherhood, Marriage, and Employment among American Women.New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
63.
StaceyJudith. 1994. “Scents, Scholars, and Stigma: The Revisionist Campaign for Family Values.”Social Text40:51–75.
64.
SteenslandBrian, ParkJerry, RegnerusMark, RobinsonLynn, WilcoxBradford, and WoodberryRobert. 2000. “The Measure of American Religion: Toward Improving the State of the Art.”Social Forces79:291–318.
65.
StevensMitchell. 2001. Kingdom of Children: Culture and Controversy in the Home-Schooling Movement.Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
66.
StolzenbergRoss, Blair-LoyMary, and WaiteLinda. 1995. “Religious Participation in Early Adulthood: Age and Family Life Cycle Effects on Church Membership.”American Sociological Review60:84–103.
67.
StroberMyra and DornbuschSanford. 1988. “Public Policy Alternatives.” Pp. 327–55 in Feminism, Children, and the New Families, edited by StroberM. and DornbuschS.. New York: Guilford.
68.
TateKatherine. 1993. From Protest to Politics.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
69.
ThorntonArland. 1985. “Reciprocal Influences of Family and Religion in a Changing World.”Journal of Marriage and the Family47:381–94.
70.
VerbaSidney, SchlozmanKay, and BradyHenry. 1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics.Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
71.
WaldKenneth. 1996. Religion and Politics in the United States.3d ed. Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
72.
WaldKenneth, OwenDennis, and HillSamuelJr. 1988. “Churches as Political Communities.”American Political Science Review82: 531–48.
73.
WaldKenneth, OwenDennis, and HillSamuelJr. 1990. “Political Cohesion in Churches.”Journal of Politics52:197–215.
74.
WhiteheadBarbara Dafoe. 1993. “Dan Quayle Was Right.”Atlantic271:47–84.
75.
WilcoxW. Bradford. Forthcoming. “For the Sake of the Children? Family-Related Discourse and Practice in the Mainline.” In Quietly Influential: The Public Role of Mainline Protestantism, edited by WuthnowR.. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
76.
WilsonJames Q.1993. “The Family-Values Debate.”Commentary95:24–31.
77.
WoodberryRobert. 1998. “When Surveys Lie and People Tell the Truth: How Surveys Over-sample Church Attenders.”American Sociological Review63:119–22.
78.
WoodberryRobert and SmithChristian. 1998. “Fundamentalism et al.: Conservative Protestants in America.”Annual Review of Sociology24:25–56.
79.
WuthnowRobert. 1999. “Mobilizing Civic Engagement: The Changing Impact of Religious Involvement.” Pp. 331–63 in Civic Engagement in American Democracy, edited by SkocpolT. and FiorinaM.. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
80.
WuthnowRobert and LawsonMatthew. 1994. “Sources of Christian Fundamentalism in the United States.” Pp. 18–56 in Accounting for Fundamentalisms: The Dynamic Character of Movements, edited by MartyM. and ApplebyR. S.. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
81.
ZuckermanAlan, ValentinoNicholas, and ZuckermanEzra. 1994. “A Structural Theory of Vote Choice: Social and Political Networks and Electoral Flows in Britain and the United States.”Journal of Politics56:1008–33.
