The Intelligence Function: Built-in Errors

Abstract

The function of intelligence deserves more comparative study than it has received. The component factors affecting an intelligence system are noted: culture, class, interest, personality, crisis. Attention is directed to two important sources of distorted intelligence, with special reference given to the foreign environment of a nation-state or of other large-scale organizations. Intelligence tends to over-report a few spots and to under-report the others, a result of power and respect rivalries. Intelligence also tends to exhibit errors prepared by the successes obtained during inter-crisis periods, and by the desire to avoid minority positions. A number of proposals are made for redressing the balance.