Being Hispanic Matters? Ethnicity as Predictor of Vote Preference in the Arizona 2024 U.S. Senate Election

Abstract

Ethnic self-identification plays a pivotal role in shaping voter behavior, particularly in diverse electorates like Arizona. This research explores how the strength of ethnic identity influences candidate evaluations in the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona. Using Social Identity Theory, the study examines survey responses from 373 Arizona residents, focusing on Hispanic and White voters. Results show that Hispanic voters with stronger ethnic self-identification evaluate co-ethnic candidates more favorably, while White voters exhibit little change based on identification. Additionally, alignment on key policy issues in Arizona—such as immigration—emerged as a stronger predictor of candidate evaluations than ethnicity itself. Furthermore, the findings challenge the assumption that ethnicity significantly affects partisan identification or co-ethnic voting among Hispanic voters, suggesting a shift toward issue-based decision-making and the strength of ethnic self-identification. These results underscore the complexity of voter behavior among Hispanics in the United States, where identity intersects with policy concerns, offering new insights into how ethnic and issue-based factors influence electoral outcomes.