Shuffle Up and Deal: Use of a Capture–Recapture Method to Estimate the Size of Stolen Data Markets

Abstract

Often overlooked in the measurement of crime is the underlying size of offender populations. This holds true for online property crimes involving the sale, purchase, and use of stolen financial data. Though available data suggests that online frauds are steadily increasing, there are currently no estimates of the scope of this offender population. The current study addresses this issue by using capture–recapture methods to estimate the size of the population participating in stolen data markets over a calendar year. Data analysis involved samples collected from three websites that facilitate financial crimes and frauds. Findings suggest that markets are much larger in size than what can otherwise be observed, are heterogeneous, and that buyers outnumber vendors.

Keywords

cybercrime carding stolen data markets online property crimes capture–recapture methods size of criminal populations

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