The 2008 Republican Nomination: John McCain as the Comeback Kid

Abstract

John McCain won a comeback victory against great odds in the 2008 Grand Old Party presidential multicandidate race without a frontrunner. He capitalized on the winner-take-all Republican rules that awarded all of the delegates of a state to the candidate coming in first, even if winning by only a small plurality. Although he trailed several Republicans in money raised and in positive media coverage, he overcame these constraints by a strong leadership message that led to early primary victories. In the end, McCain won 25 of the 41 primaries. Unlike his 2000 campaign, he courted Republican identifiers and ran ahead of both Romney and Huckabee. He was strong among Independents and moderates and trailed only slightly behind Huckabee and Romney among conservatives. McCain was second to Huckabee among evangelical voters and was quite dominant among those voters who were not evangelicals. Ironically, McCain had the highest candidate support from Republicans disillusioned with President Bush. On candidate traits, McCain led on experience, being decisive, and electability. He ranked third behind Huckabee and Romney on “shares my values.” On issues, McCain led on the most salient issue, the economy, and also dominated on Iraq and terrorism, although Romney had an edge on immigration. McCain’s victory underscores that a winning candidate in a multicandidate primary need not be highest or first among all demographic groups, issues, or candidate traits. A winner, however, must be competitive on many factors and dominant on some of them to assure victory. In 2008 John McCain did so and was truly the comeback kid in presidential politics.