The end of the Cold War has forced the world's military-industrial complex to concentrate on technological niches rather than broad technological thrusts. The decline in defense budgets and the cutbacks in defense production will erode military capabilities in the developed world, allowing the Third World to catch up in key niches.
Defense conversion has not succeeded to date, and is unlikely to succeed on anything like the scale of the previous military production or to absorb significant numbers of unemployed defense workers. The military-industrial complex should be allowed to consolidate and contract while new business formation among former defense workers, researchers, and engineers should be encouraged. In the long run, entrepreneurship will likely prove more beneficial and productive than trying to keep alive the kinds of enterprises that served the needs of the Cold War.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
1. Jose Luis Whitaker Ribeiro, Speech to the conference “Third World Defense '88,”Washington, DC, 3 Nov. 1988.
2.
2. Jose Luis Whitaker Ribeiro, correspondence with the author, 19 Aug. 1991.
3.
3. Jose Luis Whitaker Ribeiro, correspondence with the author, 22 Aug. 1990.
4.
4. Michael J. Mazaar, Jeffrey Shaffer, and Benjamin Ederington, “The Military Technical Revolution” (Final report of the CSIS Study Group on the MTR, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Mar. 1993).
5.
5. Ibid., p. 57.
6.
6. Ibid., p. 58.
7.
7. V. K. Nair, War in the Gulf: Lessons for the Third World (New Delhi: Lancer International, 1991), p. 111.
8.
8. Ibid., pp. 113, 114, 137, 142, 228.
9.
9. Although whether it is a Third World country is arguable.
10.
10. Israel, Ministry of Defense, Sibat, Israel Defense Sales Directory, 1989-1990 (Jerusalem: Sibat, 1989), pp. 249.
11.
11. Israel Aircraft Industries, Catalog of Main IAI Products and Services (Tel Aviv: Israel Aircraft Industries, May 1991).
12.
12. “Latest Version of `Opher,' Elbit's Autonomous IR Terminal Guidance Kit, Will Be Demonstrated during 1993 Paris Air Show” (News bulletin, Elbit, Ltd., June 1993).
13.
13. David Silverberg, “S. Africa Lures Defense Customers,”Defense News, 30 Nov. 1992.
14.
14. George Leopold and Vivek Raghuvanshi, “India Steps Up Cruise Missile Efforts,”Defense News, 2 Aug. 1993.
15.
15. Figure includes civil aerospace workers—there is no breakout for defense aerospace workers. Firm figures for workers employed in purely defense-related capacities are, for all intents and purposes, impossible to obtain. “Defense production” or simply “defense” is not an official employment category in any developed country. U.S. government estimates of Russian defense employment cited in this article are precisely that—estimates. To date, reliable figures have not been issued by the Russian government, nor are they likely to be. In the United States, the Aerospace Industries Association has relatively reliable figures for aerospace workers, but they do not take into account naval or ground systems workers. A good discussion of the methodological problems is contained in Herbert Wulf, “Arms Industry Limited: The Turning Point in the 1990s,” in Arms Industry Limited, ed. Herbert Wulf (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), pp. 12-15. In the end, Wulf acknowledged that he could only estimate figures for Third World producers like Chile or Brazil. Even in a country as highly developed as the United Kingdom, he could give only an estimate for 1990-92 employment figures. Given these difficulties as well as the impenetrability of closed societies like North Korea's, it seems unlikely that the world will ever know with any precision how many people were employed in making Cold War weaponry.
16.
16. Aerospace Industries Association, “1992 Year-End Review and Forecast: An Analysis” (Paper, Aerospace Industries Association, 1992).
17.
17. Igor Khripunov, “The Three Headed Challenge of Russia's Overmilitarized Economy” (Speech, “Common Defense” [exhibition and conference of international defense producers], Norfolk, VA, 22 Apr. 1993).
18.
18. U.S., Department of Commerce, Russian Defense Business Directory, Nov. 1992, p. 2-1.
19.
19. Wulf, “Arms Industry Limited,” p. 13.
20.
20. Ibid., p. 18.
21.
21. John Deutch, Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, Testimony before U.S., Congress, Senate, Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Defense Technology, Acquisition and the Industrial Base, 103d Cong., 2d sess., 18 May 1993.
22.
22. Francis Tusa, “The Money Mirage: Funds Evaporate From Gulf Programs,”Armed Forces Journal International, p. 20 (Nov. 1993).
23.
23. U.S., Department of Commerce, Russian Defense Business Directory, 2d installment, Apr. 1993, p. 2-2.
25. Brendan McNally, “Czechs Revive Arms Industry, Exports,”Defense News, 21 June 1993, p. 1.
26.
26. Loren B. Thompson, “Rethinking National Defense: Mr. Aspin's Roadmap” (Paper, Georgetown University, May 1993).
27.
27. Khripunov, “Three Headed Challenge.”
28.
28. Figure derived by subtracting the projected 1994 employment of 942,000 defense and civil aerospace jobs from the 1989 peak of 1,331,000. “Aerospace Employment Dropped Eleven Percent in 1992” (Press release, Aerospace Industries Association, 6 Apr. 1993).
29.
29. Commerce Department, Russian Defense Business Directory, 2d installment, pp. 2-3.
