Current Trends and Developments in the Arms Trade

Abstract

More attention has focused on the issue of arms transfers since Iraq, with an inventory based exclusively on foreign military technology, invaded Kuwait. Political and academic analysts of the issue are handicapped by the absence of an agreed set of data with which to work. Given that different analytical tasks require different data sets, this article reviews the types of data that could be of value. Using the aggregate data that are available, the article tries to identify trends in the trade in major conventional weapons and assess which of these trends are transient—an interim adjustment to the end of the Cold War—and which might be more long-lived. Finally, the article offers a projection of macrotrends over the medium term.

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References

Recent publications suggest that it also applies in the Middle East; see Yahya Sadowski , Scuds or Butter? The Political Economy of Arms Control in the Middle East (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1993). A 1993 study of Saudi Arabia by the International Monetary Fund apparently concluded that high spending on imports is unsustainable given the growing cost of debt servicing and low oil prices, though this does not necessarily mean that military imports need be reduced.

2. John McCain , “The Need for Improved Analysis of Conventional Arms Transfers,” in U.S., Congress, Senate, Congressional Record, 28 Apr. 1993, p. S5052.

3. E. Laurance , S. T. Wezeman , and H. Wulf , Arms Watch: SIPRI Report on the First Year of the UN Register of Conventional Arms, SIPRI Research Report no. 6 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993).

4. From this point, the comparison is between SIPRI and CRS data only. The most recent data available from ACDA end in 1989, since when there have been fundamental changes in the global arms market.

5. While CRS data indicate that the importance of the Near East has remained constant, European countries are excluded from the country coverage, as are other important importers, notably Japan. The increasing importance of Asian countries in the CRS data indicates a decline in Latin American and sub-Saharan African sales.

6. The implementation of these transfers of secondhand equipment has been described in successive SIPRI Yearbooks in 1991, 1992, and 1993. For a full accounting of the destination of U.S. equipment over the past three years, see Security Assistance: Excess Defense Articles for Foreign Countries, GAO/NSIAS-93-164FS (Washington, DC: General Accounting Office, 1993).

7. Julian Cooper , speaking at the workshop “Conventional Arms Proliferation in the 1990s,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC, 9-10 July 1992.

8. That is, modifying an already existent platform through the addition of new engines, electronics, and/or weapons.

9. The recent decision by Northrop to try and eliminate the Canadian company Bristol Aerospace as a rival for worldwide F-5 upgrades through litigation is a good example. If Northrop succeeds with Bristol Aerospace, other companies, including Bedek (Israel), Israel Aircraft Industries (Israel), Singapore Aerospace (Singapore), and Smiths Industries (United Kingdom), are all capable of performing similar upgrades.