Profiles in Transition in Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

The costs and benefits of economic restructuring are not evenly distributed over time or across a population. The early years of economic adjustment have high costs and may tend to favor strong, even authoritarian states. Weak states or poorer nations may find it difficult to weather economic adjustment with their democracies intact. The later years of stabilization may offer a harvest of capital inflows and growth that is propitious to democratic politics. There is a price to pay for delayed or timid economic reforms. Nations that postponed restructuring during the 1980s could find it difficult to juggle economic reform and democracy in the 1990s. The midterm prospects for democracy may be determined by the ability to translate economic growth into equitable income gains. The long-term perspectives for Latin American democracies will in part be influenced by whether Asian models of partnerships between the state and industry or liberal Anglo models of market-dominated capitalism are adopted.