Aging America

Abstract

Aging is among the more powerful and ubiquitous structural trends occurring in the United States. An increasingly large proportion of the population is middle-aged, young old, or old old. Dual views of aging from the inside and as generations moving through time are offered. The persistent and popular myth is that elders—persons 65-85 years old—are mostly old fogies, forgetful, sick or of limited ability, and generally out of it. While this indeed may describe some seniors, the reality is that almost the reverse is true for most. This article includes four sample “future history” scenarios from the viewpoint of elders for four time periods: Toward 1999, 2001+, 2020, and 2040. An example of a number of issues acting in concert is also presented. Last is a do-it-yourself futures exercise for the reader that may be both helpful and fun.

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References

1. William Strauss and Neil Howe , Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (New York: William Morrow, 1991). The writer of this article owes three debts to Strauss and Howe: stimulation to use the concept of generations, a plethora of facts and relationships too numerous for individual citations, and a great read. It is recommended as a refreshing and detailed view of American history from a novel standpoint.

2. What Lies Ahead: Countdown to the 21st Century (Alexandria, VA: United Way of America, 1989). A still up-to-date product of the United Way's Environmental Scan Committee, this document is a source of much of the information used in this article. It is an excellent example of the quality of the scanning that modern futurists can perform.

3. Charles Krauthammer , “Saving Nature, but Only for Man,” Time, 17 June 1991, p. 82.

4. U.S., Congress, Office of Technology Assessment , Technology and Aging in America, OTA-BA-264 (Washington, DC: Office of Technology Assessment, 1985).

5. Israel Abrahams , ed., Hebrew Ethical Wills (Philadelphia: Jewish Hebrew Society of America, 1976), p. 17.

6. Scenarios: A Tool for Planning in Uncertain Times (Alexandria, VA: United Way of America, 1984).