In this article, the principal methods used in exploratory forecasting are described. These descriptions should serve two purposes. First, for someone who intends to make an exploratory forecast, they will provide information about the strengths and useful range of each technique. Second, they will also illustrate, directly and by implication, the frailties and limitations of the techniques so that forecasts, and plans based on them, can be better assessed.
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References
1.
1. Olaf Helmer and Nicholas Rescher, “On the Epistemology of the Inexact Sciences,”Management Sciences, 6(1) (1959).
2.
A check on the forecasts made in 1964 may be found in R. Ament, “Comparison of Delphi Forecasting Studies in 1964 and 1969,”Futures, 2(1) (Mar. 1970).
3.
3. For one of the best detailed discussions of the Delphi method, see H. Lindstone and M. Turoff, eds., The Delphi Method (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1975).
4.
4. Murray Turoff, “Conferencing via Computers,”Proceedings of NERM (New York: Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, 1972).
6. Martin Garvey and Robert Moran, “IBM Rolls out Distributed Data,”Information Week, 16 Sept. 1991.
7.
A superb little book that contains basic computer programs that demonstrate most of these statistically based methods is Neil Seitz, Business Forecasting (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Reston, 1984).
8.
See also J. W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1961).
9.
9. H. S. Coleet al., eds., Models of Doom: A Critique of Limits to Growth (New York: Universe Books, 1973).
10.
10. See T. J. Gordon and H. Hayward, “Initial Experiments with the Cross Impact Method of Forecasting,”Futures, 1(2) (Dec. 1968).
11.
11. See Selwyn Enzer, “Exploring Long-Term Business Climates and Strategies with Interax,”Futures, 13(6):469 (Dec. 1981).
12.
12. There are also many examples of excellent scenario studies; an illustrative study is D. L. Goldfarb and W. R. Huss, “Building Scenarios for an Electric Utility,”Long Range Planning (United Kingdom) (Apr. 1988).
13.
13. See James Yorke and Tien-Yien Li, “Period Three Implies Chaos,”American Mathematical Monthly, vol. 82 (1975).
14.
14. T. J. Gordon and D. Greenspan, “Chaos and Fractals: New Tools for Technological Forecasting and Social Change,”Futures, 34 (1):1-25 (Aug. 1988).
