The situation in Europe is changing so fast that any statement, however carefully made, is bound to be overtaken by events. This is especially true for the structures of European security and for the evolving process of German unification. Europe might enter a period of military stability and political change. The peaceful revolution in East Germany and the call by its people for speedy reunification have forced the question of the future of the two German states back on the international agenda. The long-term prospect is for an expansion of a somewhat more loosely knit Western system of collective security to which a unified Germany would belong. The impact on the Nordic region would be significant: instead of providing a Northern support for the Atlantic Alliance, the Nordic region would become a halfway house between East and West or a building block for an all-European security structure in which it could find a congenial home.
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References
1.
1. For reasons of parsimony, the term “Eastern Europe” refers to the (former?) Soviet bloc, including the German Democratic Republic; while “Western Europe” denotes all countries west of the system's divide, and it includes the Northern region as well as the southern flank of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
2.
2. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987), p. 515.
3.
3. The Conference on Conventional Forces in Europe has a mandate from the Vienna CSCE to negotiate reductions in the conventional forces in Europe.
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4. This has been the basic assumption of the Harmel Doctrine and German Ostpolitik. See “The Future Tasks of the Alliance. Report of the Council. Annex to the Final Communiqué of the Ministerial Meeting, December 1967,”The North Atlantic Treaty Organization: Facts and Figures (Brussels: North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 1984), pp. 289-291.
5.
5. I owe these and the following ideas on German Befindlichkeiten (“sentiments”) to Thomas Kielinger, editor in chief of the Rheinischer Merkur, and his presentation at an Atlantik Brücke/Armonk Institute German-American Jewish Conference, Bonn, 8-10 Feb. 1990.
6.
6. Ibid., in Atlantik-Brücke e. V., Rundschreiben nr. 3/1990, p. 8.
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7. West German Television, 10 Nov. 1990.
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8. In the elections of 18 Mar. 1990 in the GDR, the Christian Democrats and their allies of the Demokratische Allianz, scored an impressive victory, with 48.15 percent of the popular vote. They were the political forces most closely associated with economic and political reunification.
9.
9. See “Communiqué of the Meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Federal Republic of Germany, the German Democratic Republic, France, the United Kingdom, the Soviet Union and the United States of America in Ottawa, February 13, 1990,”Bulletin der Bundesregierung, 20 Feb. 1990, p. 215.
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10. The CSCE process started in 1973, with the Helsinki Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe; its result has been the Helsinki Final Act of 1975. See Luigi Vittorio Ferraris, Report on a Negotiation: Helsinki—Geneva—Helsinki 1972-1975 (Leiden: Sijthoff, 1979). So far there have been review conferences in Belgrade, Madrid, and Vienna. The Vienna meeting gave a mandate to a Conference on Conventional Forces in Europe, charged with negotiating reductions of conventional forces in Europe.
11.
11. See “Address by Secretary of State Baker before the Berlin Press Club, December 12, 1989,”U.S. Policy-Information and Texts, 13 Dec. 1989, pp. 35-44.
12.
12. See “Hoffmann: In den Bündnissen bleiben,”Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 26 Feb. 1990, p. 3.
13.
13. See “Sicherheitspolitische Fragen eines künftigen geeinten Deutschland,”Bulletin der Bundesregierung, 21 Feb. 1990, p. 218.
14.
14. See Hans-Peter Riese, “Die Geschichte hat sich ans Werk gemacht. Der Wandel der sowjetischen Position zur deutschen Frage,”Europa-Archiv, 45(4):117-126 (Feb. 1990).
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15. A very real price will be paying for the Soviet troops continuously stationed on East German territory as well as for the devolution of the former East German trade with the Soviet Union.
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16. The translation is “Without necessity, entities should not be multiplied.” I owe this reference to Gwyn Prins, “Report on a Discussion: Preparing for CSCE,” mimeograph (Cambridge Global Security Programme, 22 Mar. 1990), p. 3.
17.
17. See Arne Olav Brundtland, The Nordic Balance (Oslo: Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt, 1981).
18.
18. For an excellent overview of security and defense in the Nordic region, see Falk Bomsdorf, Sicherheit im Norden Europas. Die Sicherheitspolitik der fünf nordischen Staaten und die Nordeuropapolitik der Sowjetunion (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 1989).
19.
19. See NATO's Defense of the North, ed. Eric Grove (London: Brassey's U.K., 1989).
20.
Bomsdorf , Sicherheit im Norden Europas, pp. 77-82.
21.
“Report of the Defense Committee on Security Policy and Defense Planning” (Press release [unofficial translation], Stockholm, 23 Jan. 1990), p. 1.
22.
see also Martin O. Heisler, “Denmark's Quest for Security: Constraints and Opportunities within the Alliance,” in NATO's Northern Allies, ed. Gregory Flynn (Totowa, NJ: Rowman & Allanheld, 1985), pp. 57-112.
