This article discusses recent trends in fertility, marriage, and divorce in the period since 1965 in the United States. It describes briefly the sharp changes in patterns of births, marriage, informal unions, divorce, and remarriage. Very recent developments of note include the increasingly important place of cohabitation in the life course, the continuing postponement of marriage, and the rise in birth rates to women in their thirties. Explanations are examined that emphasize both the increased economic opportunities for women and the cultural shift toward a greater emphasis on individualism and self-fulfillment. In the concluding section, it is argued that concerns about fertility and the family in the years ahead will focus less on the number of children than on whether their upbringing and education will be adequate to meet the needs of a society with a relatively small labor force and a large dependent population.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
1. On the prevasiveness of this pattern in Western Europe, see Louis Roussel and Irène Théry, “France: Demographic Change and Family Policy since World War II,”Journal of Family Issues, 9:336 (Sept. 1988).
2.
2. See Andrew J. Cherlin, Marriage, Divorce, Remarriage (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1981).
3.
3. Ibid.
4.
4. For information on a sample of white, middle-class men and women, see Elaine Tyler May, Homeward Bound: American Families in the Cold War Era (New York: Basic Books, 1988), pp. 120-121.
5.
5. Martin O'Connell and Maurice J. Moore, “The Legitimacy Status of First Births to U.S. Women Aged 15-24, 1939-1978,”Family Planning Perspectives, 12:22 (Jan.-Feb. 1980).
6.
6. Arland Thornton and Deborah Freedman, “The Changing American Family,”Population Bulletin, 38(4): 21 (Oct. 1983).
7.
7. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, “Marital Status and Living Arrangements: March 1988,”Current Population Reports, Series P-20, no. 433 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1989), p. 61.
8.
8. Ibid., pp. 59-60
9.
9. Larry L. Bumpass, James A. Sweet, and Andrew Cherlin, “The Role of Cohabitation in Declining Rates of Marriage” (NSFH Working Paper no. 5, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Aug. 1989).
10.
10. Ibid., tab. 1.
11.
11. Larry L. Bumpass and James A. Sweet, “Preliminary Evidence on Cohabitation” (NSFH Working Paper no. 2, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, 1988).
12.
12. Cherlin, Marriage, Divorce, Remarriage.
13.
13. Teresa Castro Martin and Larry L. Bumpass, “Recent Trends in Marital Disruption,”Demography, 26:37 (Feb. 1989).
14.
14. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, “Advance Report of Final Marriage Statistics, 1986,”Monthly Vital Statistics Report, 1989, 38(3), supp. 2, p. 5.
15.
15. Bumpass and Sweet, “Preliminary Evidence.”
16.
16. Melvin Zelnik and John F. Kantner, “Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Usage, and Pregnancy among Metropolitan Area Teenagers: 1971-1979,”Family Planning Perspectives, 12:230 (Sept.-Oct. 1980).
17.
17. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Part 1 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1975), p. 50.
18.
On the Depression cohort, see Cherlin, Marriage, Divorce, Remarriage, p. 21.
19.
19. This provisional estimate by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics is as yet unofficial and subject to revision when final figures are compiled. The 1987 provisional estimate was 1.88 and the final estimate was 1.87.
20.
20. National Center for Health Statistics, “Natality Statistics,” tab. 18, p. 32.
21.
21. Zelnik and Kantner, “Sexual Activity.”
22.
22. Ibid.
23.
23. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, “Fertility of American Women: June 1988,”Current Population Reports, series P-20, no. 436 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1989), p. 9.
24.
24. National Center for Health Statistics, “Natality Statistics,” tab. 19, p. 33.
25.
25. Larry L. Bumpass and James A. Sweet, “Children's Experience in Single-Parent Families: Implications of Cohabitation and Marital Transitions” (NSFH Working Paper no. 3, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, 1989).
26.
On the current labor force participation rate for mothers of infants, see Bureau of the Census, “Fertility of American Women,” p. 5.
27.
27. Richard A. Easterlin, Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare (New York, Basic Books, 1980).
28.
28. Joseph Veroff, Elizabeth Douvan, and Richard A. Kulka, The Inner American: A Self-Portrait from 1957 to 1976 (New York: Basic Books, 1981), p. 191.
29.
29. Arland Thornton, “Changing Attitudes towards Family Issues in the United States,”Journal of Marriage and the Family, in press.
30.
30. See Robert N. Bellahet al., Habits of the Heart: Individualism and Commitment in American Life (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985), esp. chap. 4, “Love and Marriage.”
31.
31. Ron Lesthaeghe, “A Century of Demographic and Cultural Change in Western Europe,”Population and Development Review, 9:411 (Sept. 1983).
32.
32. Ronald Inglehart, The Silent Revolution: Changing Values and Political Styles among Western Publics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1977).
33.
33. There were about 50 million women of childbearing age in the late 1980s. A TFR that is 0.2 children below that replacement rate thus implies a shortfall of roughly 10 million births over a generation.
34.
34. U.S. Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization Service, Annual Report, 1987 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1988), tab. 1.
35.
35. Larry L. Bumpass, “Children and Marital Disruption: A Replication and Update,”Demography, 21:71 (Feb. 1984).
36.
Nicholas Zill and Carolyn C. Rogers, “Recent Trends in the Well-Being of Children in the United States and Their Implications for Public Policy,” in The Changing American Family and Public Policy, ed. A.J. Cherlin (Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press, 1988), pp. 31-115.
37.
37. M.D.R. Evans, “American Fertility Patterns: A Comparison of White and Nonwhite Cohorts Born 1903-56,”Population and Development Review, 12:275 (June 1986).
38.
38. Ibid., p. 270.
39.
39. National Center for Health Statistics, “Natality Statistics,” tabs. 2 and 18, pp. 16 and 32.
40.
40. Bureau of the Census, “Marital Status and Living Arrangements,” p. 61.
41.
41. William J. Wilson, The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987).
