The purpose of this article is to summarize and interpret the most current data on imprisonment in the United States. These data will be examined in light of other criminal justice and national trends affecting prison population growth. Of special importance will be analysis of historical and projected trends in the use of American prisons. This will include an examination of the methods used to forecast future incarceration rates in light of changing criminal justice policies and other factors believed to influence prison population growth. The authors conclude that despite a projected national trend of a leveling off of prison admissions, prison populations will continue to rise, reflecting the effects of sentencing reforms aimed at increasing prison terms.
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References
1.
1. Prisoners in 1983, Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin (Washington, DC: Department of Justice, BJS, 1984), app. A.
2.
2. Joan Petersilia, Racial Disparities in the Criminal Justice System (Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1983).
3.
3. Prisoners in 1983.
4.
4. Prisoners in 1983.
5.
5. Federal, District of Columbia, and States Future Prison and Correctional Institution Populations and Capacities, GAO/GGD-84-56 (Garthersburg, MD: Government Accounting Office, 1984).
6.
6. Alfred Blumstein and Jacqueline Cohen, “A Theory of the Stability of Punishment,”Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 64:198-207 (1981); Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, and Dave Wagner, “The Dynamics of a Homeostatic Punishment Process,” in ibid., 67:317-334 (1978).
7.
7. Federal officials have interpreted imprisonment data to show a slowing of the growth in imprisonment beginning in 1983. Prisoners in 1983, p. 1.
8.
8. Margaret Cahalan, “Exploration of the Stability of Institutionalization Hypothesis: 1850-1980” (Paper delivered at the Law and Society Meeting, June 1984, Boston, MA).
9.
9. Jim Galvin and Kenneth Polk, “Any Truth You Want: The Use and Abuse of Crimes and Criminal Justice Statistics,”Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 19:135-165 (1982).
10.
10. These are the Part 1 offenses of the FBI's Uniform Crime Report and include homicide, rape, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, larceny, auto theft, and arson.
11.
11. Tracking Offenders, Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin (Washington, DC: Department of Justice, BJS, 1983).
12.
12. Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice: The Data (Washington, DC: Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 1983), p. 45.
13.
13. Jail sentences could also represent credit for time served while awaiting trial rather than additional incarceration after sentencing.
14.
14. Status offenders include truants, runaways, and youths declared incorrigible.
15.
15. The increases in the juvenile correctional population have occurred despite decreases in the number of admissions to these facilities. In California, the reason for these increases has been increases in the length of stay. See Juvenile Delinquency and Youth Confinement in California: Statistical Trends (San Francisco: National Council on Crime and Delinquency, 1984).
16.
16. Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice, p. 81.
17.
17. Households Touched by Crime, 1983, Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin (Washington, DC: Department of Justice, BJS, 1984).
18.
18. Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, and Daniel Nagin, eds., Deterrence and Incapacitation: Estimating the Effects of Criminal Sanctions on Crime Rates (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1978).
19.
19. H. Brenner, Effects of the National Economy on Crime and Aggression, vol. 2, Final Report (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1976).
20.
20. Lawrence E. Cohen, “Modeling Crime Trends: A Criminal Opportunity Perspective,”Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 18(1):138-164 (1981); Terence P. Thornberry and R. L. Christenson, “Unemployment and Criminal Inducement,”American Sociological Review, 49(3):398-411 (1984).
21.
National Council on Crime and Delinquency , “Nevada Prison Masterplan” (Final report, National Council on Crime and Delinquency, San Francisco, CA, Aug. 1982).
