Birth Planning and Fertility Transition

Abstract

In 1971 the government of the People's Republic of China launched the third birth control campaign. The goals were to raise the age at marriage, lengthen the birth interval, and limit the number of births per family to two in the cities and three in the countryside. A birth-quota and pregnancy-authorization system was instituted. The campaign was greatly facilitated by the nationwide network of free community-based contraceptive and abortion services and generous incentives. By the early 1980s the contraceptive prevalence rate rose to 70 percent, and the total fertility rate fell to about 2.5 children per woman of reproductive age. The year 1979 saw the introduction of the one-child campaign. By 1982 first births accounted for 47 percent of total births, and 42 percent of the one-child families had pledged to have no more children. The successful implementation of the one-child campaign will, however, lead to a rapid aging of the population. The percentage of the population older than 64 years of age will increase rapidly, from 5 percent in 1982 to 7.3-7.7 percent in 2000 and to 23-27 percent in 2050. With such a high aged-dependency ratio, caring for the aged will entail heavy fiscal outlay in the twenty-first century.