Population Dynamics and Policy in the People's Republic of China

Abstract

This article reviews recent changes in population policy and demographic trends in the People's Republic of China. Recently available estimates of birth and death rates for the last several decades are examined in the context of political events and disruptions in China. China heralds the world's most comprehensive and perhaps most effective birth control program, aimed at stabilizing the Chinese population at 1.2 billion by the turn of the century, and has made remarkable progress in controlling population growth during the last decade. The dramatic fertility decline in recent years is analyzed and compared with the trends in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The extent of China's fertility decline is found to be unequaled anywhere in the world. A potential conflict between promotion of agricultural production by individual families through the new responsibility system and the birth control policy is also discussed.

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References

1. Deng Xiaoping , Selected Writings (Beijing: People's Publishing, 1983), p. 167.

2. Quanguo qian fen zhiyi renkou shengyulü zhouyang diaucha fenxi [China 1982 National Fertility Survey] (Beijing: State Family Planning Commission, 1983).

Tuan Chi-hsien , “China's Population in Perspective,” in China among the Nations of the Pacific, ed. Harrison Brown (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1982), pp. 69-83.

4. The sampling ratio for the survey was one one-thousandth and the sampling unit was a street committee in the urban areas and a production brigade in the rural areas. The survey, which interviewed 310,485 units—there were only 23 refusals—employed the address list of the 1982 census to conduct face-to-face interviews on basic household questions and birth histories of women of childbearing ages.

Tien H. Yuan , China's Population Struggle: Demographic Decision of the People's Republic of China (Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 1973).

6. Liu Zheng et al. , China's Population: Problems and Prospects (Beijing: New World Press, 1981).

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8. Xu Dixin , “On the Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Development,” in Renkou yenjiu [Population research], People's University of China, Institute of Population, no. 2 (Beijing: China Publications Center, 1983).

9. Ibid., p. 5.

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10. Yang Deqing , ed., Renkouxue gailun [General discussion of population theory] (Beijing: Hebei People's Publishing, 1982), p. 148.

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11. Chen Muhua , “Birth Planning in China,” in Research on the Population in China: Proceedings of a Workshop, ed. Robert J. Lapham and Rodolfo A. Bulatao (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1981).

12.

12. Ibid.

13.

see translations in “On Province-level Fertility Policy in China,” Population and Development Review, 9(3):553-561 (Sept. 1983).

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14. “On Province-level Fertility Policy in China.”

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15. Pi-chao Chen , Population and Health Policy in the People's Republic of China, Smithsonian Institution, Interdisciplinary Communications Program, Occassional Monograph Series, no. 9 (Washington, DC: Smithsonian Institution, 1976); idem , Rural Health and Birth Planning in China; Tuan , “China's Population in Perspective.”

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16. Japanese Organization for International Cooperation in Family Planning, World and Population, JOICFP pub. no. 9 (Tokyo:JOICFP, 1983).

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17. The populations of China and Korea sanction abortion; Taiwan does not, but has not enforced its code against abortion.

18.

18. The 1981 Beijing Fertility Survey was conducted by the Beijing Family Planning Commission and the Population Institute of the People's University of China; 8229 women were interviewed. Beijing Family Planning Commission and Institute of Population Theory Research of the People's University of China, “Dynamics of Women's Marriage and Fertility,” in Renkou yanjiu, People's University of China, Institute of Population, no. 1 (Beijing: China Publications Center, 1983).

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19. Song Jian , Tuan Chi-hsien , and Yu Jingyuan , Population Control in China: Theory and Applications (New York: Praeger Publishers, forthcoming), chap. 8.

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20. Philip M. Hauser , Aging of Population and Labor Force for the World, More Developed and Less Developed Areas and Their Regions: Population Aging 1970-2025; Labor Force Aging 1970-2000, Population Research Institute, Research Paper Series, no. 15 (Tokyo: Nihon University, 1983).

21.

21. Ibid.

22.

22. Ibid.

23.

23. Ibid.

24.

24. Xu Dixin , “On the Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Development.”