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Abstract

Demographic changes in the next 20 years will affect labor force characteristics and workers' expectations of jobs and unions. These expectations will affect the size and strength of labor unions, union organizing and bargaining, and union political-legislative actions. A demographic look at the next 20 years indicates (1) a slowdown in population growth contributing to slow economic growth and slow growth in jobs; (2) aging of the labor force, and more concern for job security and retirement; (3) women, blacks, and Hispanic-background workers constituting bigger shares of the labor force; (4) population and job growth in the Sunbelt and in nonmetropolitan areas; and (5) declining opportunities for upward mobility for the middle-aged, baby-boom generation. These changes point to a continuing key role for labor unions in protecting and promoting the interests of working people.

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and Howard N. Fullerton, Jr. , and John Tschetter , “The 1995 Labor Force: A Second Look,” Monthly Labor Review, 106 (11):3-10 (Nov. 1983).

2. Richard A. Easterlin , Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience (New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1968); see also Richard A. Easterlin , Victor Fuchs , and Simon Kuznets , “American Population Since 1940,” The American Economy in Transition, ed. Martin Feldstein (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980), pp. 275-347.

3. Clarence D. Long , The Labor Force Under Changing Income and Employment (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1958); see also U.S., Department of Labor , Employment and Training Report of the President, 1982 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1983), tab. A-5, pp. 154-157.

see also William P. Butz , Kevin F. McCarthy , Peter A. Morrison , and Mary E. Vaiana , Demographic Challenges in America's Future (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 1982), pp. 13-19.

5. Courtney D. Gifford , ed., Directory of U.S. Labor Organizations, 1982-83 Edition (Washington, DC: Bureau of National Affairs, 1982).

6. American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations, Department of Research , Union Membership and Employment 1959-1979 (Washington, DC: AFL-CIO, 1980), p. 1-9.

7. U.S., Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics , Earnings and Other Characteristics of Organized Workers, May 1980 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1981).

The Future Demographics of American Unionism

Abstract

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