The Impact of Polls on Public Opinion

Abstract

There are three ways in which polls can influence the public opinion they purport merely to measure. Just being interviewed tends to arouse interest and to encourage some respondents to inform themselves and to clarify their views on the subject. It may even increase electoral participation. Second, there is little evidence that knowledge of where the majority stands has anything like the much feared bandwagon effect. Although many people are aware of poll findings, they react to these in more diverse ways, including tactical voting, than the bandwagon hypothesis implies. These reactions may in turn produce a third effect. Feeling that there is little support for one's viewpoint can discourage and even intimidate the advocates of a minority viewpoint, keeping that issue from being raised. Here polls can either act as a corrective or put a damper on discussion, making the minority view appear even less popular than it actually is.

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References

1. Howard Schuman and Stanley Presser , “Public Opinion and Public Ignorance,” American Journal of Sociology, 85: 1214-1225 (Mar. 1980). An earlier poll, taken in 1948, is a graphic illustration of how “don't know” responses to a question about a fictitious act, the Metallic Metals Acts, could be reduced to a minority by offering respondents the choice between two somewhat elaborate statements.

2. Leon Festinger , A Theory of Dissonance (Evanston, IL: Row, Peterson, 1957).

3. Charles T. Salmon , Ellen Mrja , and Polly Carroll , “Communication in Surveys: Examining Cognitive Effects in Survey Research” (Paper delivered at the convention of the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Corvallis, OR, Aug. 1983). This paper received honorable mention in the student awards of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, 1982.

4. See Robert E. Kraut and John B. McConahay , “How Being Interviewed Affects Voting,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 37:398-406 (Fall 1973); Richard F. Yalch , “Pre-election Interview Effects on Voter Turnout,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 40:331-336 (Fall 1976).

5. Solomon Asch , Social Psychology (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1952), chap. 16.

6. Albert H. Cantril , ed., Polling on the Issues (Cabin John, MD: Seven Locks Press, 1980); p. 53.

and Robert Navazio , “An Experimental Approach to Bandwagon Research,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 41:217-225 (Summer 1977).

and Sam Tuchman and Thomas E. Coffin , “The Influence of Election Night Broadcasts in a Close Election,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 35:315-326 (Fall 1971).

9. Among the British public, 30 percent were in favor of banning polls during an electoral campaign. See the May 1983 Gallup poll.

10.

10. James R. Beniger , “Winning the Presidential Nomination: National Polls and State Primary Elections, 1936-1972,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 40:21-38 (Spring 1976).

11.

11. Gabriel Tarde , L'opinion et la foule [Gabriel Tarde on Communication and Social Influence], ed. Terry N. Clark (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1969), p. 278. Tarde's volume was first published in 1898.

12.

12. Ibid., p. 308.

13.

13. Elisabeth Noelle-Neuman , Die Schweigespirale (Munich: R. Piper and Company, 1980).

14.

14. Robert Navazio , “Experimental Approach.”

15.

15. Gladys Engel Lang and Kurt Lang , The Battle for Public Opinion: The President, the Press and the Polls during Watergate (New York: Columbia University Press, 1983), chap. 6.

16.

16. Ibid., p. 95.