Terrorism and Political Assassinations: A Transnational Assessment,1968-80

Abstract

The international system is experiencing a growing amount of terroristic violence. During the past five years there has been a marked increase in the yearly number of politically inspired assassinations of prominent public figures. This study presents the results of a seven-year, cross-national survey of political assassinations. An analysis of 721 events reported in 123 nations for the period concludes that there are definite trends and patterns of political assassinations that may provide important lessons for public policymakers. Certain nations, targets, and terrorist actors account for a large portion of all assassination activity. Statistical analysis suggests that the academic community may have to rethink its ideas about assassination behavior in general and its relationship to the issue of development in particular. No evidence could be generated by the study to link terrorist-inspired assassinations to the developing world nor was any international network of assassins discovered. The findings point to growing levels of separatist-inspired violence and a distinct shift in target selection toward the international business community and the diplomatic corps. Terrorists appear to be increasingly successful because they are targeting relatively unprotected public individuals.

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References

1. This article will use the following definition of terrorism: “The use or threat of use of anxiety-inducing extra normal violence for political purposes, which such action is intended to influence the attitudes and behavior of a target group wider than that of the immediate victim.” Edward F. Mickolus , “Statistical Approaches to the Study of Terrorism,” in Terrorism: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, eds. Y. Alexander and M. Finger (New York: John Jay, 1977), pp. 209-269.

and Thomas P. Thornton , “Terror as a Weapon of Political Agitation,” in Internal War, ed. H. Eckstein (New York: Free Press, 1964), pp. 71-99.

3. Carlos Marghellia quoted by Paul Wilkinson , Political Terrorism (New York: John Wiley, 1974), p. 12.

Also Ivo K. and Rosalind L. Feierabend and Betty A. Nesvold , “Social Change and Political Violence: Cross National Patterns,” in Violence in America, eds. Hugh Davis Graham and Ted Robert Gurr (New York: New American Library, 1969), pp. 606-667.

Edward E. Azar , Richard A. Brody , and Charles A. McClelland , “International Event Interaction Analysis: Some Research Considerations,” SAGE Professional Papers in International Studies, Vol. 1, No. 02-001, (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1972) pp. 11-57.

6. Azar , “The Analysis of International Events,” p. 12.

7. Charles W. Kegley, Jr. , Gregory A. Raymond , Robert M. Rood , and Richard A. Skinner , eds., International Events and the Comparative Analysis of Foreign Policy (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1975), p. 98.

8. H.H.A. Cooper , “Terrorism and the Media,” in Alexander and Finger, p. 144.

9. The definition of an assassination is the politically motivated act of killing or attempting to kill a prominent public official. A successful assassination results in the death of the target.

10.

10. R. Burrowes , “Theory Si, Data No!, A Decade of Cross-National Research,” World Politics, 25: 120-144 (Sept. 1972).

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11. The ASSASSIN data set will be donated to the University of Michigan's Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research in late 1982.

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12. Gary D. Hoggard , “Differential Source Coverage and the Analysis of International Interaction Data,” in Comparing Foreign Policies, ed. James N. Rosenau (Beverly Hills, CA:Sage, 1973), p. xxx.

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13. John W. Sewell , The United States and the Developing World, Agenda, 1979 (New York: Praeger, 1979), pp. 151-182.

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14. The World Bank , World Bank Atlas, 1977 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1977), p. 2.

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15. The World Bank , World Development Report, 1979 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1979), pp. 162, 163.

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16. Betty A. Nesvold and John V. Gillespie , eds., Macro-Quantitative Analysis: Conflict, Development, and Democratization (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1974), p. 1060.

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17. Feliks Gross cited in James F. Kirkham , Sheldon G. Levy , and William J. Crotty , Assassination and Political Violence (New York: Bantam Books, 1971), p. 527.

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18. Stefan T. Possany and L. Francis Bouchey , International Terrorism—The Communist Connection (Washington, DC: American Council for World Freedom, 1978), p. 38.

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19. Joseph Kraft , “Terrorism: A Catching Disease,” The Washington Post, 8 May 1980, p. 16.