Chapter 3

Abstract

The consumption of transportation in the United States is prodigious. Given the large shares of national resources, time, and capital invested in transportation, it is surprising how little understood are the motivations and circumstances that stimulate travel and the scale and nature of the benefits that derive from transportation. The development of social indicators in the transport sector would make a major contribution to improved understanding of transportation and to improved public decisions in the coming decade. The key element in the future mobility of the U.S. population will continue to be the automobile. Critical factors determining the future cost of auto travel will be synthetic fuels development, shifts to diesel, and electrification; with positive development, auto-operating costs could remain roughly constant in this decade. In other modes of passenger travel, the key to competitive success will be the ability to reduce fuel requirements. In modifying freight transport patterns, the shifting location and character of fuel resources will be the dominant factor. Consumers will either have to consume less transportation or accept the displacement of other needs to retain their present levels of mobility. The trade-offs made will materially affect life-styles and national economic structure.