Proliferation and the Future: Destruction or Transformation?

Abstract

We must recognize that proliferation includes both nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons, the latter being only a follow-on to the former. The first step toward coping with proliferation is to accept that nuclear weapons are essentially political weapons of terror, not mili tary weapons, even if we have convinced ourselves otherwise. For the near term, proliferation can enhance international stability if it occurs in balanced, rather than unbalanced, fashion. Over the long term, the issues are different. The critical global problem is finite limits to natural resources. Nuclear weapons are becoming both the cheapest and the only way of waging war. This faces us with a stark choice between alternative futures: (1) A world of iron or totalitarian governments, in which each state blackmails others so as to acquire scarce resources. The continuing shortages lead to rigid internal management and unending nuclear war. (2) A world in which shortages are recognized and we develop global agreements for resource distribution. The concept of sharing replaces property (both individual and state), social hierarchies (including the state) are transformed into other social systems we cannot yet describe in detail, and the social institution of war has no meaning. If we choose the first, there is no future. If we choose the second, we must soon begin a program of balanced deproliferation, in which we abandon both nuclear energy and nuclear weapons.