"Quo Vadimus?"

Abstract

The arguments against nuclear proliferation are numerous and weighty. Further proliferation may increase the likelihood of nuclear war through accident, nuclear black mail, or escalation of conflicts. Conversely, there are reasons for leaders to support their countries' right to acquire nuclear weapons for security, power status, or economic benefits. It is very likely that additional states will seek to produce nuclear weapons, and the technical information and expertise to design and manufacture a nuclear explosive devise are readily available. Problems of safeguarding nuclear facilities from nuclear diversion and sabotage and theft by terrorists are reasons for curbing nuclear proliferation and searching for ways to reduce incentives to proliferation both through responsible behavior by present nuclear powers and through the UN and international organizations. However, problems of organizational structure and decision-making processes will confront both nations and international organizations. Judgments as to the best way to slow, channel, and limit proliferation differ markedly; however, five suggestions are: (1) the promotion of détente; (2) amelioration of differences likely to induce proliferation, (3) establishment of policies to inhibit acquisition of nuclear energy systems by additional nations while offering alternatives; (4) application of economic sanctions against detonation of nuclear devices; and (5) a greater willingness to accord status to countries on the basis of factors other than nuclear capabilities.