The Developing World in the Fifth Kondratieff Upswing

Abstract

The current world economic situation seems to fit the cyclical 40- to 50-year commodities pricing pattern first identified by N. P. Kondratieff. If the pattern continues as it has for the past two centuries, the world, after the price surge of 1972-75 in foodstuffs, energy and raw materials, will experience a high and erratic protracted plateau for perhaps 20 years and then return to relatively low levels. How ever, we may be in the early stages of a major confronta tion between man and the physical limits of growth on this planet. Conventional Keynesian economics no longer suffice in this context. Research and development must be given highest priority, nationally and internationally, and new patterns of investment must be created. This will require international attitudes of solidarity and communal action policies to balance inequities in life quality for the benefit of both developed and developing nations. Cooperation in resource expansion and conservation, technological develop ment, food production, birth control and trade relationships, to name a few major areas, is essential. An international partnership is a minimum condition for the survival of modern industrial civilization.