Crisis Prediction

Abstract

The importance of the social sciences has been much exaggerated. The social scientists are particularly bad at prediction, and so at helping us to forestall the socio-political crises that occur more and more often. The rate of social change has gone up very sharply for a number of reasons, so surprises are more frequent. This rate should be reduced, at least in rich countries, which face far more unknown situations. Poor countries, on the other hand, face mainly situations known from those slightly more advanced. What poor countries mostly need, therefore, is better information of old kinds, not new kinds of information. Crisis-anticipating information will mostly be valueless, since no one knows how to winnow it. It also requires many low-level informers, and the identity of these people is a major problem of political power. So is the identity of the processor and publisher of their data. Substantial improvements in information and its use might abolish democracy.