Sources of Rebellion in Western Societies: Some Quantitative Evidence

Abstract

The extent, types, and causes of protest and rebel lion in twenty-one Western nations are statistically analyzed, using data on civil strife for 1961-65. Proportional measures of man-days and deaths in strife are combined in "magnitude of strife" scores. For more detailed comparisons, four com ponent strife scores are determined by distinguishing violent from nonviolent strife, and turmoil (riots, demonstrations) from rebellion (revolution, terrorism). The relative impor tance of three causes of strife is then examined: the extent of discontent, cultural justifications for strife, and the balance of social support between regimes and dissidents. Measures of these three causes, combined in multiple regression analyses, explain almost identical proportions of all forms of strife. The balance of social support is an important cause of variation in all forms of strife. Attitudes justifying strife are shown to be most important as causes of the least intense forms of strife. Most strikingly, discontent is found to be a negative cause of nonviolent protest but the strongest positive cause of rebel lion. These findings form the basis for an explanatory and predictive categorization of the Western nations according to their structural, cultural, and psychosocial potential for the several kinds of strife.