Policy-Planning in the New Diplomacy

Abstract

Most issues in foreign affairs can only be resolved by intuitive judgments based on knowledge and experience. Some problems, however, are susceptible of more rational, objective treatment, and application of such methods can only be helpful. New methods, including systems analysis and new mathematical techniques, can be usefully employed, in the areas of prediction, factor analysis, and what might be described as prescriptive analysis, in search of the optimum course. Such methods help to sort out the interacting variables with which foreign affairs is replete. Application of these methods will not be easy, partly because of the subject's complexity, partly because of practitioners' resistance to such innovations. In the Planning-Programming-Budgeting System (PPBS), a useful beginning has been made. Its application, however, to the traditional diplomatic functions— representation, negotiation—will take time and experimentation. State Department foreign affairs planners now direct their work toward analysis of special problems and country studies. In addition, planners fulfill a limited adversary role, offering "alternatives" to recommendations before the decision-makers. These functions can all be strengthened. PPBS should also be pursued, despite very real limitations on its full application. Additionally, changes are needed in organization, method, personnel, and, particularly, commitment if planning is to meet the needs of the new diplomacy.