Can a Nuclear World War Be Avoided?

Abstract

Most political leaders of the world have agreed for a decade that a nuclear war could not serve the interest of any nation. Yet the constant admission by spokesmen of the major powers that war must be avoided has had no counterpart in the acceptance of diplomatic positions at any point of conflict which would permit a negotiated settlement. The assumption that nuclear weapons have rendered war irrational has en couraged the practice of brinkmanship. That there have been no serious conflicts, despite the absence of any significant cold- war compromises, suggests the existence of several stabilizing factors in world politics. Of these, the most important are the general appreciation of the costs of a nuclear war and the relative nonexistence of vital interests, on one side or the other, in the great cold-war issues. Many of the Western objectives, for example, are anchored to the abstract principle of self- determination and thus transcend the genuine interests of the nations that pursue them. The postwar world has been marked by great material and political achievements which illustrate the enormous stake which all nations have in its perpetuation. The challenge to big-power diplomacy is that of eliminating the abstract and unachievable goals of the Cold War and accepting as a measure of success the stability which past decisions have accomplished.