Is Cleavage Between Russia and China Inevitable?

Abstract

Although there are many issues about which China and the Soviet Union could quarrel and although there is strong evidence of some disagreements, the two regimes have an overwhelming common motive for maintaining soli darity against the outside world so long as both remain com mitted to Communist orthodoxy. Many of the predictions of future Sino-Soviet conflict erroneously assume that the Communist leaders, no matter what they say, play the tradi tional game of power politics. In fact, considerations of boundary, population, and so on are less important to the Communists than differences over the strategy which they should follow in their struggle against the non-Communist world. The Chinese position might be described as Marxist fundamentalism. There are two basic issues in the disagree ment : the actual balance of power between Communist and non-Communist sections of the world, and the ability of non- Communist leaders, especially in the United States, to act in terms of rational self-interest. Since the controversy is en tirely over strategy and timing, it does not necessarily involve any disruption of basic Communist solidarity. It may well become less heated if Chinese leaders come to realize that the balance of power in their favor is less decisive than they have claimed and if Soviet policy toward non-Communist powers becomes somewhat more intransigent to meet Chinese criticism. Soviet leadership by Khrushchev or in his spirit makes other developments less likely.—Ed.