Estimating National Power and Intentions

Abstract

The rational formulation of American foreign policy is rendered extremely difficult by the great number of factors which must be taken into account by the decision- makers. These are beyond the capacity of any human brain, or even team of brains, to assimilate, evaluate, and reduce to forms upon which sound policy can be based. A weighted framework or model is needed, and some mechanical support for human thinking which would rationalize initial foreign policy estimation electrically. Such a device will also permit gaming. As a preliminary blueprint for this proposed device, The World Analyst classification system is used to divide na tional power into ten "factors": geographic, demographic, po litical, foreign affairs, economic, industry, transportation and communication, scientific, armed forces and biographic. To evaluate individual elements of national strength and weak ness, these are cross-categorized on game boards in five panels: immediate national power, potentials for national power, de struction of such elements, aggressions between nations other than the United States, and acts of aggression towards the United States. Using a model of this sort a trial balance can be obtained between nations, and policy can be tested in advance.